October 4, 2008

Week 5 Picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Has it really already been a quarter of a season? When time flies like that, you can almost want to justify adding games, but we all know how ridiculous that would be. I will maintain that adding games would increase injuries and if a team played long enough into the season, their calibre or play would go down to almost CFL-like levels and nobody wants to watch CFL ball.

Indianapolis (-3) over HOUSTON
If Indy wasn’t coming off of a bye week, I’d go against them here. Houston is definitely due for their first win of the season but it’s always hard to take down a well-rested team, let alone a well-rested Peyton Manning. I’m also interested to see how much heat the crowd can generate. This is the first home game for the Texans and the stadium is missing it’s roof, we’ll see how that plays.

Tennessee (-3) over BALTIMORE
If Joe Flacco and his Ravens can’t beat the Steelers banged up team, how will they ever beat the red-hot Titans? With Willis McGahee hurt (ribs and eye) will the Ravens be able to establish a running game with Rice and McClain?

San Diego (-6) over MIAMI
A week off isn’t going to help the ‘fins against the Chargers. Personally, I’m glad they busted out the direct snap offence against New England. Had they done it versus a younger, faster team like San Diego, Ronnie Brown would’ve never scored 4 TDs.

CAROLINA (-9.5) over Kansas City
The Chiefs win against the Broncos will be their only win of the season. Mark my words. At home Carolina should score at will against this young Chiefs team. Also, Larry Johnson is still over-rated.

Washington (+6) over PHILADELPHIA
With Brian Westbrook still banged up, can we really trust the Eagles to cover this line? The Redskins could get caught playing a bit over-confident after their huge win in Dallas but I think they’ll play with just the right amount of swagger.

Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
Against the Bears, the post-Millen era isn’t going to get out to a great start. This defence will baffle Jon Kitna into throwing three picks at least.

Atlanta at GREEN BAY (no line)
I’ve never seen a “no-line” notation this late in the week but even if Aaron Rodgers plays, how effective can he be with a bum shoulder? Being limited to hand-offs in practice is never a good thing. I think that if the line doesn’t get too high (-7), I’d take the Packers to win. This is, after all an offensive unit that’s more of system than it is of players.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Seattle
If the well-rested Giants don’t pummel Matt Hasselbeck into submission, I will be surprised. It will be interesting to see how Hasselbeck plays with a decent receiver back in the lineup.

Tampa Bay (+3) over DENVER
Defence usually trumps offence and Denver’s defence is god-awful.

SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over New England
I’m not ready to back Matt Cassel on the road, even if that means I’m putting faith in J.T. O’Sullivan. I can see Frank Gore having a great Sunday too.

Buffalo (Pick) over ARIZONA
Talk about no respect, the Bills are undefeated going into this game and will come out with that still intact. Losing Anquan Boldin will really hurt the Cardinals passing game since defences can now double up on Larry Fitzgerald.

Cincinnati (+17) at DALLAS
Giving 17 points is never an easy thing to do. That said, even with Chris Henry back in the fold until his next suspension and Chad Johnson saying how he wants to “kiss the star,” I would gladly give the Bengals the points and sit back and laugh while the Cowboys destroy them.

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are way too banged up to handle this Jaguars team that spent their draft picks bolstering their pass rush. I feel bad for Big Ben with this line in front of him. The guy is going to get beat up all night long.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Minnesota
The Vikings have Bryan McKinnie back at left tackle so now we can really expect Adrian Peterson to get going. I won’t be surprised when he runs for at least 200 yards and scores four TDs against this woeful Saints D.

Last week: 10-2
This season: 32-24


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