October 10, 2008

Picks for six

by Dan Bilicki In: Fantasy, Football, Picks

Troubles a brewin’ in Big D. Their secondary — which hasn’t been as great as it looks on paper — has some potentially big problems. First, Terrence Newman, who has already missed a few games, has a sports hernia, which might require surgery and could cause him to miss a minimum of six weeks. He’s the best guy in their secondary and would be a significant loss for that period of time.

Then there’s the whole new Pacman incident. I think this has been blown out of proportion completely. Who cares if he and one of his bodyguards argued at a hotel? Seriously? Two people arguing is news? If Peyton Manning and one of his friends argued in a hotel lobby would it be water cooler talk? No, of course not. This shouldn’t be an issue. However, we can’t stop the media so I’m hoping this doesn’t blow up since Adam Jones is needed more than ever with Newman out.

Now, with lines straight from my guy Ben in Vegas, the week six picks.

NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Oakland
The Saints lost a rough one on Monday night and I see no reason why they can’t take it Tom Cable’s Raiders this week. What sense does it make to give the reins of a team that’s losing to a coach whose record in college hovered around the .250 range? Sure, that’s a serviceable batting average for a utility infielder, but an NFL head coach’s winning percentage? Come on. Don Banks also has a good piece on how the Saints could’ve been 5-0 right now, but then again, I could’ve been pitching for the Dodgers right now if I got a lot of breaks.

INDIANAPOLIS (-4) over Baltimore
The Texans literally handed the Colts the win last week but I’m not thinking about that. What I’m going with in this pick is the Colts needing to win one at home. That and Joe Flacco on the road should be enough for the cover.

Cincinnati (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
I mean, the Bengals have to win a game soon, right? Marvin Lewis may not be fired yet but it will happen soon. I really hope that Eric Mangini addressed his defence in the bye week after that horrendous showing in the win against Arizona.

Carolina (+1) over TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers will never be a “sexy” pick and maybe that’s why I’m not really buying into them too hard. As much as I hate DeAngelo Williams for stealing (my) Jonathon Stewart’s potential huge game last week, it’s a great deveiopment for the Panthers. Having a two-headed monster is better than not having one.

Chicago (-3) over ATLANTA
So are the Falcons better than we all thought? It looks like it after winning in Lambeau last week. I’ve heard some people say the Bears defence is over-rated but I firmly disagree with them. This will be Matt Ryan’s first challenge — and loss — at home.

HOUSTON (-3) over Miami
It’s the Texans’ time to win one. They are more than due after weeks of heartbreak. Will they be the ones to finally stop Ronnie Brown in the wildcat offence? They have the speed defence and defensive line to do so I think.

WASHINGTON (-13.5) over St. Louis
You’ve probably heard this a lot but I’ll say it again: If your team’s defence is horrible, why would you fire the head coach to promote the defensive coordinator? St. Louis looks like the best candidate to finish 0-16 now. Also being hyped: No turnovers for the Redskins yet; sounds like a jinx to me.

MINNESOTA (-13.5) over Detroit
Another candidate for 0-16. With Jon Kitna suffering and possibly out. How bad can these Lions possibly be with Orlovsky or Stanton under centre? Look for Adrian Peterson to do huge things against Detroit, even if they stack nine guys in the box.

DENVER (-3) over Jacksonville
For the Broncos, it’s been the kind of season where you get all the breaks. It’s been the opposite for the Jags. I can see the Jacksonville backfield tandem racking up a lot of yards but not many scores. An easy cover for Shanahan’s boys.

Philadelphia (-5) over SAN FRANCISCO
The best pass rushing team in the league against the worst pass blocking team in the league. Oy Vey. Brain Westbrook has probably played through more pain than his two broken ribs are giving him. Donovan McNabb knows he has to man up and play better — I think he will.

Update – With Westbrook sitting this one out, I’ll still give the Eagles the win and even with Correll Buckhalter starting, they’ll cover the adjusted line of -4.5. And really, Westbrook’s only worth .5 points? Honestly?

Dallas (-4.5) at ARIZONA
Even if the Cowboys have too many weapons, how can they not be able to use them against the Cardinals? The only way that the Cards can win this one is if they knock out Tony Romo the same way they did to Trent Edwards and the Bills last week.

SEATTLE (-2) over Green Bay
The Seahawks have to start buckling down if they want to move paste Arizona and into the NFC West drivers seat. At home, I think they can sneak out a close one against ailing Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Update — Green Bay (+2) over SEATTLE. If you think I’m taking Charlie Frye to beat anyone, let alone the better than average Packers, you’re crazy. No Hasselbeck, no win for the Seahawks.

New England (+5.5) over SAN DIEGO
The two teams burned by the Wildcat offence get to face off. I’m not so sure where exactly the Chargers are at. They tried to build themselves specifically to beat the Patriots so this game is even more intriguing. I think the evolution of Matt Cassel — he threw a deep ball last week! — continues here.

Finally, in the fantasy world, this week I’ve received the most polar trade offers possible from the same guy in my standard, public Yahoo! league. To preface this, I have Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown and Felix Jones (plus Ryan Torain — certified sleeper) at RB — do you get any more solid? First, he offers me DeAngelo Williams for my top QB, Drew Brees. Pretty dumb considering a) how much better Brees is. B) how Williams has had his only good week this season and c) I will never need another RB… ever. So he comes back with this offer. LaDainain Tomlinson for Ronnie Brown. Has there ever been that much of a swing in lopsided offers ever? The No. 1 pick in the draft for a guy running out of a gimmick offence? Thank you sucker.

Last week: 6-6-1
This season: 38-30-1

1 Comment

  1. This is an excellent post. I’m bookmarking your blog and will sure be back for more. Thank you.

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