November 7, 2008

Week 10 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

It’s been a great season for new beginnings and Brady Quinn taking the torch for Cleveland last night was no exception. It’s just too bad that he’s playing for an awful team. I have no idea what the hell was going on with the defender on that 93 yard TD pass but it sure wasn’t anything you could remotely call “coverage.”

As for Quinn, he was playing against a Broncos team that is missing it’s only good defender (Champ Bailey) but he did look good playing as well as just appearance (as per usual, he was a dreamboat). And while it was pretty smart of Brandon Stokley to stop Braylon Edwards from whatever celebration he had planned, now, sadly, we’ll never know what it was. My bet is something Obama related.

Now for Week 10’s picks. As always, the home team in CAPS and the lines straight from Vegas.

DETROIT (+6.5) over Jacksonville.
It probably wasn’t a good idea to banish your best linebacker, who happens to be a team captain. And I know that it’s highly unlikely that an above-average team like the Jags will lose to two unbeaten teams in a row, but the Lions have that nasty habit of losing big early and slowly chopping away to cover the spread.

Tennessee (-3) over CHICAGO.
Does it really matter if it’s Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman going against a defence as good as the Titans? There has to be a letdown coming sometime for this undefeated squad but that’s not going to happen on the Midway this Sunday.

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Buffalo.
Everyone keeps pointing out how the Bills are slumping and that they were over-rated because of their hot start. There’s two reasons for that: Trent Edwards hasn’t been the same since he was concussed against Arizona and Aaron Schobel, the team’s best defender has been out for several weeks. Any team that is missing key guys on both sides of the ball usually will be slumping.

New Orleans (+1) over ATLANTA.
Now that every single person in North America has their spot on the Matt Ryan bandwagon, well it’s time to see how many people fall off with a speed bump. Ryan and the Falcons

NEW YORK JETS (-9) over St. Louis.
This should be a high scoring game and I would bet the house on the over, I’m that confident. The Jets can stop people on the ground but have made some very bad QBs look very good the past few weeks. The Rams just can’t stop anyone who’s not Brad Johnson.

MIAMI (-8.5) over Seattle.
Seattle is 2-12 since 2001 when playing on the East coast. Throw in how bad the Seahawks have been this season and it’s not helping their case. Seneca Wallace is going to have to be something special if he wants to get back in my good graces. And seriously, will Joey Porter please shut up? The least he could do is talk trash about a Seahawks player instead of Matt Jones, a Jaguar.

Green Bay (+2.5) over MINNESOTA.
This should be a nice, tight division game between two solid contenders. You have to admire how well the Pack did in Tennessee last week and I can see them winning outright visiting the Vikings.

Carolina (-8.5) over OAKLAND.
The Raiders couldn’t do much against the Falcons defence and Carolina’s is even better. The Raiders couldn’t do much against the Falcons offence and Carolina’s is even better. See where I’m going here?

Kansas CIty (+15.5) over SAN DIEGO.
I know that Tyler Thigpen isn’t going to keep up his decent play. I know that the Chargers defence is due for a turnaround. I also know that LaDainian Tomlinson is way past due for a huge week. But this line is way too high.

Baltimore (-1) over HOUSTON.
Ahh, the makeup game after their week 2 was Hurricaned out. This one could be higher scoring than these teams have a reputation for. With Andre Johnson becoming more over-rated than he was under-rated and the Ravens surprisingly decent offence, we could see these two close to 30 points each. The injuries to the Ravens secondary trouble me, but not enough to bet against this contender.

Indianapolis (+3) over PITTSBURGH.
Do you really believe in Byron Leftwich? I sure don’t. There was a reason He was cut in Jacksonville and took so long to catch on with another club. With Bob Sanders in the Colts secondary, their entire defence is a whole new monster.

New York Giants (+3) over PHILADELPHIA.
I’ve seen a lot of people taking Philly here and don’t understand why. I like them Westbrook back but this Giants team is the best in football — even better than the undefeated Titans in my opinion. There’s no way that Philly should be giving points so I’ll gladly take them.

ARIZONA (-9.5) over San Francisco.
I bet that ESPN is wishing they could have a do over for picking this Monday Nighter. At least the world will get to see Kurt Warner lead the high-powered (and Hightower-ed) Arizona offence over the inferior 49ers.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 9-4
This season: 65-52-2

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