November 28, 2008

Burnt Turkeys

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

What a day for blowouts. Watching the Titans run all over the Lions was embarassing. I have no confidence in them to even cover a single game from here on out. The only realistic chance to get off the schnied and not join the 1976 Bucs as winless teams is next week against Minnesota. But really, that’s only a possibility if the Vikings end up losing their tandem DT Williamses.

The Cowboys continued their roll but the Seahawks didn’t exactly put up much of a fight. At 8-4, Dallas has a good, inside track to the playoffs now but have an uber-tough schedule coming up. Going to Pittsburgh is a toss-up when you consider their injuries, the Giants owned them last time out but Romo’s back and the game’s in Big D this time. Wrap it all up with Baltimore at home and a visit to Philadelphia and Dallas looks like they’ll have to fight for every win. Going 2-2 is realistic but 10 wins may not be enough this season for a wildcard berth.

Well, I’m pretty sure after watching the Cardinals constantly give the ball to the Eagles, we can safely count them out of winning any cold weather game from here on out. This is good news for them in the playoffs since they would have at least one game at home, but could potentially be screwed if they had to venture out to Giants Stadium or an NFC North destination in January.

Also, it’s nice to see the Donovan McNabb of old again.

As for this weekend’s picks, lines from Vegas and home teams in CAPS.

Denver  (+7.5) over NEW YORK JETS
The Broncos are due for a good game and their aerial game might be good enough to expose the Jets. This one should be a shootout so I would start any Jet or Bronco on your fantasy roster.

BUFFALO (-6) over San Francisco
The 49ers might be a level up from Kansas City but that doesn’t mean they’ll stand a chance against the Bills. Throw in the west coast team travelling east deal and you have a solid bet.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over New Orleans
As great as the Saints looked on Monday night against Green Bay, you can’t bet against the Bucs at home. Somehow, their defence is just uncanny at Raymond James. The Saints are getting Reggie Bush back, but Pierre Thomas has looked fine in his absence. Thomas also doesn’t refuse to run up the middle like Bush.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Carolina
Aaron Rodgers was forced to throw the ball too many times and that caused him to make bad decisions and throw those picks. Without the noise of the Superdome to distract him, I don’t see him having a problem against the Panthers. The Panthers aren’t very great on the road either.

New York Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON
The Giants beat down the Redskins in the season opener, yet are only giving three points here? The ‘Skins have not been impressing lately and only defeating the wretched Seahawks by three just isn’t acceptable from a so-called contender.

ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over Miami
This isn’t an endorsement of the Rams, no siree. This is because the Dolphins always seem to play down to teams and aren’t really prone to blow out weaker opponents.

Baltimore (-7) over CINCINNATI
If the Ravens don’t wipe the floor with the Bengals, can we really count them in as contenders for the AFC North title? Baltimore-Pittsburgh next week should turn out to be the de facto division championship, but the Ravens still need this win.

Indianapolis (-5) over CLEVELAND
Really? The Colts are only giving five to a Browns team that’s back to Derek Anderson at QB? I have no doubt in Peyton for this one. And surprise, Bob Sanders is hurt again; good thing that the Colts won’t need him.

Atlanta (+4.5) over SAN DIEGO
The long-awaited Michael Turner revenge game. Who would have guessed that he would be outshining LaDainian Tomlinson after the Chargers let him walk for greener pastures. Then again, you can’t argue with picking to keep one of the best backs of his era over a guy who seemed destined to be a free agent bust. Also, I’ve finally on the Falcons bandwagon.

NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Pittsburgh
I’m really not sure that the Patriots shouldn’t be giving more points here. The Steelers are on the road and New England has owned them in recent past. Throw in the constant uncertainty of Willie Parker’s health and Matt Cassel’s crew seems like a good play.

OAKLAND (-3) over Kansas City
This is the anti-matchup of the week. If you’re stuck watching this game, I feel very sorry for you. Seriously, if there were a sports bar in hell, this would be the only game broadcasted. But, somebody has to win it (according to Donovan McNabb at least), so why not the home Raiders.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Chicago
The Vikings need to get everything they can out of the soon-to-be suspended Williamses. Adrian Peterson usually plays great against the Bears so don’t be surprised when you see that 20-160-3 stat line creep across the ticker. Kyle Orton still isn’t 100% either which doesn’t bode well.

Jacksonville(+3) over HOUSTON
Hey, look at that, I remembered to pick the Monday Nighter while making the rest of my picks. That hasn’t happened in weeks! I’m not even sure which of these teams is better, so I’ve got to take the points in that scenario. What a disappointing season it’s been for Jacksonville; they’re a real case-in-point that without a solid offensive line, you’re not going to go very far.

This week: 1-1
Last week: 5-8-1
This season: 80-68-3


  1. Another IDIOT! How many times do I have to explain that I bet to win money. I’m sorry you live in another country and don’t have any professional sports teams but you don’t have to hate! Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road…and will cover in

  2. [...] Burnt Turkeys … for a good game and their aerial game might be good enough to expose the Jets. This one should be a shootout so I would start any Jet or Bronco on your fantasy roster. BUFFALO (-6) over San Francisco The 49ers might be a level up from Kansas City but that doesn’t mean they’ll stand a chance against … [...]

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