September 25, 2009

Week 3 NFL picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Why is everyone writing off star quarterbacks already? Tom Brady hasn’t been super human like many people assumed he would be after returning from having his knee literally blown apart. Tony Romo couldn’t beat the Giants and threw two interceptions, now he’s apparently one of the worst QBs in the league. Brett Favre is taking some heat for his slow starts. Aaron Rodgers lost to Cincinnati and has been sacked more than any QB in the league. Can we really start piling on guys with proven arms after one or two below average starts? I think we should all lighten up and give these guys at least another two weeks. In the case of Jamarcus Russell though, I think that ship has sailed.

Here are this weeks’ picks with the lines straight from Vegas.

Titans +3 over JETS
This could be the matchup of the week, but I don’t see the Titans falling to 0-3. Also, as great as Darrel Revis has been, his talents will be wasted for the Jets the Titans have only average receivers to cover.

TEXANS -3.5 over Jaguars
This one could really go either way. Houston exploded on offence last week but this game is really a must-win for Jacksonville. I’ll favour the home team here.

EAGLES -9.5 over Chiefs
Philadelphia’s secondary will have it a lot easier than last week’s crap-tastic outing against Drew Brees. It doesn’t matter who starts at QB there, the Eagles should win this one handily.

RAVENS -13 over Browns
Did you know that Baltimore has the best offence in the AFC through two weeks? Did you know that Cleveland has second worst in the whole league? That’s enough reason for me to back Flacco and Co.

Giants -6.5 over BUCS
This line seems pretty low to me which could signify a trap game. But the Giants beat the Cowboys, who were coming off a blowout in Tampa Bay so this pick is all relative.

Redskins -6 over LIONS
A lot of people are saying that this will be the week the Lions finally win. I am not one of those people. The Detroit faithful, well, what’s left of them, will have to wait at least another week to snap their woeful streak.

RAMS +6.5 over Packers
Green Bay have played two games now that have come down to the final possessions. Maybe this whole switch to the 3-4 hasn’t worked out that well. St. Louis is playing their home opener too.

VIKINGS -6.5 over Niners
I like the way that the 49ers have played to open this season, but in Favre’s (and Peterson’s) first home game of the season, the Vikings should roll.

PATRIOTS -4 over Falcons
I’m not buying into the whole Brady has lost it story and, for the second straight season, I’m not buying into the Atlanta is good story. Although the second of those story lines will most likely be my downfall.

Bears -2 over Seahawks
The Seahawks are crazy injured again and there shouldn’t be a way that they hold up — even at home — against Jay Cutler’s Bears. This could be the week that Matt Forte gets it going too.

Saints -6 over BILLS
Sure, Buffalo played great and then lost to New England in the opener, then trounced the Bucs last week, but with Drew Brees coming to town, I wouldn’t bet on the Bills keeping up in a shootout.

Steelers -4 over BENGALS
If you’re buying in after Cincinnati’s win over Green Bay last week, looking for a buy low, sell high deal, well your values going to crash after this weekend. The Steelers starting out 1-2? Yeah, right.

Dolphins +6 over CHARGERS
San Diego may be injured but Miami has to fly cross-country on a shortened week, but the Chargers aren’t covering and the Dolphins looked really good despite losing on Monday.

Broncos -2 over RAIDERS
The Raiders have kept their two games close against division foes, but Denver might be a lot better than we expected. Plus Jamarcus Russell is officially a bust.

Colts -2.5 over CARDINALS
Oh, you’d like to bet against Peyton Manning in a night game? Sure, I’d love to take you money. Also, this line has moved four whole points in the Colts favour, something that you’ll rarely ever see. But it is a good indicator of what the guys in Vegas are thinking: There’s a lot of money riding on Indy, so the Cards might actually be a better bet. In short, stay away from this one with real money.

Panthers +8.5 at COWBOYS
Jake Delhomme was able to keep the Panthers in the game against the Falcons last Sunday, why wouldn’t he be able to do it against the Cowboys, who can’t seem to defend WRs. If you have Steve Smith, I’d start celebrating early for a fantasy win.

Last week: 7-8.
This season: 14-16.


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