October 2, 2009

NFL week 4 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Now is the time when we can really start judging teams on what we’ve seen. Some teams out there are already banged up injury-wise (Seattle, Pittsburgh). Some teams out there have already decided to ditch their pre-ordaned starting QBs (Cleveland, Tampa Bay). Some teams have even gone with three QBs so far (Carolina, Week 1). So with this information in our hands, it could make it easier to pick this weeks set of games, but then again, for every kernel of information we have, the guys in Vegas setting these lines has about ten.

These lines are straight from Las Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS.

Oakland (+9.5) over HOUSTON
As bad as JaMarcus Russell has been, even he can keep the Raiders within ten points of the Texans, whose run defence might be the worst out there.

Tennessee (-2) over JACKSONVILLE
If you thought last week was a must-win for the Titans, well this week they’ll be even more desperate. Tennessee will also be fired up to take down a division opponent as well and since Jacksonville isn’t super against the run, this one could get ugly.

NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Baltimore
With everybody all tied up in the “Is New England done?” stories of last week, everyone forgot that they’re still a good team. Tom Brady will be pressured but how Joe Flacco plays against the crafty Bill Belichick’s defence will be the real story.

Cincinnati (-4.5) over CLEVELAND
Didn’t the Bengals just beat the Steelers? And now they’re favoured by only 4.5 against possibly the worst team in the NFL? Derek Anderson starting for the Browns doesn’t help their case either.

New York Giants (-9) over KANSAS CITY
The Giants have no business giving any less than 14 to the Chiefs, even if they’re playing Kansas City. The only way that the Giants don’t cover is if Kansas City’s receivers core plays like the Patriots for Matt Cassel.

Detroit (+10.5) over CHICAGO
Do you smell a winning streak? Yeah, I don’t either. But the cowardly Lions could be decent enough to cover against the Bears, who haven’t shown the ability to blow anybody out yet.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON
After losing to the Lions, anything is possible for the Redskins. They haven’t covered yet this season and that might not change with a line like this on Sunday.

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Seattle
Peyton Manning could be the league MVP at the end of the season if he keeps up his play. The Seahawks MVP might be Julius Jones, which is not a good thing at all.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over New York Jets
Drew Brees didn’t need to be superhuman against the Bills, but he might this week against the Jets. The problem with New York’s defence is that they only have one Darrell Revis, a bad sign against an even passing offence.

Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI
The Bills have to find a way to get the ball in T.O.’s hands and he’ll make Miami pay when he gets it. Getting Marshawn Lynch back from suspension also gives Buffalo a superb backfield tandem. The Dolphins won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard with Chad Henne at the pivot.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis
Even without Frank Gore in the backfield, the Niners shouldn’t have too much trouble with the lowly Rams.

Dallas (-3) at DENVER
The Broncos have beaten three chumps so far, but just take a look at their schedule now. Denver could easily lose seven of their next eight games.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over San Diego
The Steelers are going to be pumped after losing last week to the Bengals. The Chargers aren’t great when playing on the east coast.

Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
Who is going to be most fired up for this game: Brett Favre, the Packers, or any columnist writing an NFL preview this week. My prediction is that the most fireworks are in print and the Packers win by a TD.

Last week: 8-7.
This season: 23-24.

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