November 20, 2009

NFL Week 11 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Are you surprised at how well Ricky Williams ran last night? I sure was. After losing Ronnie Brown for the season, it was very easy to write off the Dolphins, especially on a short week. This win might not be so big because it was just the Panthers that they beat, but if the Fins keep it up, they could sneak into a wild card berth.

As always, the lines are straight from Las Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS

LIONS -3 over Browns
Just when you thought that we had already seen the worst game of the season when the Rams visited Ford Field, the Browns will be rolling in to town this weekend. Cleveland is downright awful and coming off a shutout by a team that played its sloppiest game of the season. The Lions still have Calvin Johnson and that’s good enough to justify taking the home team.

JAGUARS -9 over Bills
Teams that fire their coaches mid-season never turn it around like in other sports. The Bills look lost and the Jags have been putting together wins over crummy teams, a bill that Buffalo fits.

Steelers -10 over CHIEFS
If Kansas City could play Oakland every week, they might be where some pundits thought they would be this season, on the edge of the playoff hunt. That didn’t happen and the Steelers will love racking up some TDs after failing to get one against Cincy.

Colts -1 over RAVENS
How about no respect for an undefeated team? Indy opened this game as the underdog, even after Baltimore only played one minute of highly effective football on Monday Night. The Colts defence is banged up, but the Ravens are going to be missing a few players too. It’s pretty hard to bet against a no-loss team when they’re only giving a point.

GIANTS -6.5 over Falcons
These two teams are both on a big slide and need a win. One team will get it and since it’ll be missing it’s two best RBs, I wouldn’t think it will be the Falcons. The Giants are coming off a bye and should have their issues sorted out.

49ers +6.5 over PACKERS
The Niners defence is looking great and the Packers offensive line isn’t, even after a decent showing against Dallas. Green Bay’s offence as a whole wasn’t too impressive against Dallas
VIKINGS -10.5 over Seahawks
If this game was in Seattle, I would consider taking the points and watching Favre do a little struggling outside. But it’s in the nice confines of Minnesota’s dome and the Seahawks are far too banged up to deal with the Vikes on a fast track.

COWBOYS -11 vs. Redskins
I don’t pick the Cowboys’ games due to bias and a game like this is precisely the point. Redskins-Cowboys is one of the hottest rivalries in all of sports and is always going to be a great game. If I were a gambler, I would gladly take the Skins and the points, but my heart won’t let me. In fact, it’s nearly a lock when you consider that in these teams past 10 meetings, the largest margin of victory has been five.

BUCS +11.5 over Saints
The Bucs aren’t a great team, but with their magic rookie at QB, they might be just good enough to exploit the Saints ravaged defence and only lose by 10 points at home.

Cardinals -9 over RAMS
How pissed off do you think that Steven Jackson is right now? Of the five worst teams in football, he’s by far and away the best player on them. Maybe he should pull a Stephen Jackson and demand a trade to get out of a bad situation. Arizona should light up St. Louis, who have little chance of keeping the game close like they did last week.

PATRIOTS -10.5 over Jets
This is a lot of points to give in a rivalry game to a team that has already won a head-to-head matchup once, but after the debacle to end Sunday night’s game, there’s no way that the Patriots aren’t going to be geared up for a shootout this week.

Bengals -9.5 over RAIDERS
If Cincinnati can keep the defending Super Bowl champions from scoring a TD, they can sure do the same to the lowly Raiders. Oakland’s defence isn’t going to give much resistance either.

Chargers -3 over BRONCOS
With or without Kyle Orton, the Chargers were going to cover this game. These teams are moving in opposite directions and that trend should continue.

Eagles -3 over BEARS
Donovan McNabb always gets fired up to play in his hometown and they’re catching the Bears at the right time. Their defence is ineffective and Jay Cutler is tossing more interceptions than TDs these days.

Titans +5 over TEXANS
Houston’s gunning for their first ever playoff spot but the Titans have finally found their stride and are red-hot. The battle between Vince Young and Mario Williams could actually be compelling television as a change from recent seasons. I’d take the points in what’s destined to be a squeaker.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 10-4
This season: 78-59-1

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