November 27, 2009

NFL week 12 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

More on the Thanksgiving games later, but for now, RTP’s picks for this weekend.

The lines are straight from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS.

HOUSTON +3.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts put a whopping 25 players on their injury report list this week and 13 of them were starters. If there ever was a week for them to lose a game, it’s right here. The Texans only lost by three in Indianapolis, so it’s proven that they can keep it close and if they eliminate a miscue or two, they have a better than average shot at ending the Colts streak.

Cleveland +14 over CINCINNATI
In rivalry games, you never want to be laying double-digits. This is especially true when these teams last meeting was settled in overtime. The Browns might have actually found their offensive rhythm last week, so keeping it close might not be out of the question.

MINNESOTA -10 over Chicago
Chicago’s porous defence has to contain a red-hot Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and a phalanx of speedy receivers? I wouldn’t be so confident that they could do that, even if they had Brian Urlacher.

PHILADELPHIA -9 over Washington
The Redskins are down to their third-string running back and unless you’re the Cowboys, that’s a sure sign you’re in for a loss. The Redskins three wins this season have come against inferior opponents and, in Denver’s case, had terrible quarterbacking. There’s no such luck against an Eagles team that is in the race for the division crown.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
This mild weather is doing no favours for teams like Buffalo, who can occasionally lay it on a warm-weather team like Miami in late November and on. Ricky Williams proved last week he can handle a full-time workload with Ronnie Brown out for the season and the Bills’ rush defence isn’t very strong.

TENNESSEE -1.5 over Arizona
The Titans are rolling and it’s mainly because they figured out how to stop teams. Really, all it took was getting two starting defensive backs back from injury. The Cardinals run defence is going to its hands full with Chris Johnson, who’s turning into a modern-day Barry Sanders right before our eyes.

Seattle -3 over ST. LOUIS
If the Seahawks could stay healthy one of these seasons, they might actually have a shot at being a contender again. Against the sad-sack Rams, anybody can look like contenders, especially when Marc Bulger’s out – for the third time this season too.

Tampa Bay +12 over ATLANTA
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again; Josh Freeman is just good enough to keep Tampa Bay in games. The Falcons haven’t been too awe-inspiring recently either, going 1-4 in its’ past five.

Carolina +3 over NEW YORK JETS
How are the Jets going to stop Carolina’s running game? New York’s run defence has been atrocious since they lost Kris Jenkins. These two teams are highly turnover prone, but Jake Delhomme has a better chance of managing the game than Mark Sanchez does.

SAN FRANCISCO -3 over Jacksonville
Maurice Jones-Drew can sure run the ball, but the Niners sure can stop the ground game. This game will come down to Alex Smith having to lead the 49ers down the field and failing to do so. Maybe San Francisco should invest in a new QB come next draft.

SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Kansas City
The woeful Chiefs surprised the Steelers last week as Pittsburgh played down to KC’s level. Kansas City won’t be so lucky this week with LaDainian Tomlinson looking fully revitalized and San Diego coming off a huge win over Denver.

BALTIMORE (-1) over Pittsburgh
If Ben Roethlisberger can’t go, then who can? Backup QB Charlie Batch is out too so the job would fall to Dennis Dixon. Would you bet on a team whose QB was making his first career start against Baltimore? Me neither. The Steelers defence isn’t the same with Troy Polamalu, either.

New England +2.5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints secondary is still depleted because of injuries and can they really keep up with Randy Moss and Wes Welker? Belichick really has to step up his calls this week and against a potentially perfect team, he’ll no doubt bring some heat.This week: 2-0

Last week: 7-8
This season: 87-67-1

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