December 11, 2009

NFL Week 14 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

So, maybe I should have figured into last night’s pick that no team ever looks good enough in subzero temperatures on a short rest, especially teams that have lost at least four games in a row.

The lines are straight from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS.

INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Denver
The question with the Colts now is will they cover, or won’t they? The Broncos are putting together another one of their hot runs this season, but the Colts are the pinnacle of the AFC. Manning has proved time and again that taking Reggie Wayne out of the game with a lockdown corner doesn’t affect the offence too much either.

Cincinnati +6.5 over MINNESOTA
As we’ve noticed so far this season, the Bengals are scrappy enough to keep games close, or even win, against the best teams in the league, yet falter against the crummiest bunch. Seeing that the Vikings are in the former group, the Bengals shouldn’t have a problem getting up for this one and maybe their excellent defence could pressure Favre into another nightmare day.

New York Jets -3 over TAMPA BAY
If this line didn’t look so manageable, I’d easily take the Bucs. The Jets usually collapse when pressured with the weight of a playoff race, but Tampa is playing for nothing but next year.

KANSAS CITY +1 over Buffalo
Every week has to have one putrid stinker and here it is. I’m sure the fans of both teams think this is an easy win, but somebody has to lose besides any TV audience stuck watching this tripe. The Chiefs home field advantage should give Buffalo’s offence line fits and spoil a few drives.

Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO
I’m surprised that the Packers aren’t getting more credit than this facing a team as secretly terrible as Chicago. The Bears don’t have much going on for them and their home field advantage or crowd support could be negated if it’s chilly enough out there on Sunday.

New Orleans -10.5 over ATLANTA
How confident are you that the Saints will be able to run up the score against a division rival after seeing Washington nearly ruin their perfect season? Surprisingly, not very. New Orleans gets up for these games more than you think and playing in a dome, even if it is Atlanta’s, only helps the lightning quick Saints.

BALTIMORE -13.5 over Detroit
Quite simply, the Ravens need this. The last thing that Baltimore wants to do is disappoint against a terrible club like the Steelers did last night.

JACKSONVILLE -1 over Miami
This might be one of the few games that the Jaguars sell out this season. Cross-state rivals fighting to get into the post-season should have this crowd fired up for once. I’d trust David Garrard more than Chad Henne here.

Carolina +13.5 over NEW ENGLAND
How much do you trust the Patriots right now? Brady has a new kid at home, players are being sent home from practice and Bill Belichick has clearly lost his fastball. I’m not saying they’ll lose this one, but it won’t be a blowout. Plus, Julius Peppers is playing to show the Pats how much of an asset he could be next season.

HOUSTON -6 over Seattle
The Seahawks are terrible on the road and the Texans have to do something to give us hope for next season. Maybe a quick rally to .500 could even save Gary Kubiak’s job. But it probably won’t.

TENNESSEE -13 over St. Louis
How many touchdowns will Chris Johnson be good for this week? Three? Four? Six? The sky is the limit, but only if Vince Young plays. Poor VY hurt a knee in practice yesterday but should be able to play come Sunday.

Washington -1 over OAKLAND
Jason Campbell is secretly quite a good quarterback. We’ll all find this out next season when he signs elsewhere and leads a big turnaround for a pseudo-contender like San Francisco or Houston.

San Diego +3 over DALLAS
This could be the last chance we have to see a punter hit the scoreboard that was such a concern in the pre-season. The Chargers have been on one hell of a roll and the Cowboys December swoon has juts begun.

Philadelphia +1 over NEW YORK GIANTS
As a Cowboys fan, I’ve decided it would be in Dallas’ best interest for the Eagles to win. The Giants swept the Boys this season and hold the tiebreaker while Dallas took the first game against Philly and the teams meet in Week 17. The Eagles get DeSean Jackson back and the Giants needed two massive plays to beat Dallas last week.

Arizona -3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
So the Cardinals paste the 10-2 Vikings and now they’re only favoured by 3.5 over a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith? Where’s the love for Arizona? Kurt Warner is healthy again and ready to run up the score en route to the post-season.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 9-6
This season: 105-79-1

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