October 1, 2010

NFL Week 4 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

18 games is looking like a probability for the future of the NFL and, as much as we the fans would love to see the extra tilts, it’s not the best idea to have these players submit their bodies to two additional games when they’re already getting injured and beaten down more and more every year.
Colts president Bill Polian has already said that his team will be preparing for it and he’s usually at the forefront of these developments. There’s nothing official yet, but looking at Polian’s stance is a good barometer of the future.
So, do we really want the Super Bowl decided by a battle of attrition, or by seeing the best players of the best teams on the field deciding it? Stick with the 16-game schedule for the sake of guys that really matter in this decision.

As for the picks, the home teams are in CAPs and the lines are straight from Vegas.

Denver +7 over TENNESSEE
The Broncos have the best passing game in the league, but the Titans are throwing out a dynamic backfield with Vince Young and Chris Johnson. This game should be closer than the seven-point line.
PITTSBURGH (pick) over Baltimore
The Steelers look sensational on defence and the Ravens may be without key running back Ray Rice. Throw in the fact that Joe Flacco’s only good game was against Cleveland and there could be a problem for Baltimore.

Cincinnati -3 over CLEVELAND
The Bengals offence isn’t firing like we thought it would, but the Browns offence is right where we thought it would be. I can’t see Cincy’s D allowing too much in this one.
Detroit +16 over GREEN BAY
The Lions are very susceptible to the running game, but the Packers don’t have the guys to take advantage of it. I’d rather take this massive amount of points when that’s the case.
NEW ORLEANS -15 over Carolina
The Panthers could be the worst team in the league and they’re visiting the defending champs, who are coming off a loss. The Saints should be fired up to take out a weaker division rival.
ATLANTA -7.5 over San Francisco
The Falcons are looking like a borderline powerhouse. They can score, play defence and they even beat the defending champs – even if it required a missed short field goal. The Niners aren’t looking too good and shouldn’t be getting less than ten points.
ST. LOUIS (pick) over Seattle
Sam Bradford might already be the best quarterback in his division. That’s not saying much, but I’d much rather have him in a game than Matt Hasselbeck.
New York Jets -5 over BUFFALO
I’m not buying into Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Bills offence. So what if he did better than the released Trent Edwards at QB, Fitzpatrick did it against the porous Patriots. He’ll fall on his face against the Jets.
JACKSONVILLE +8.5 over Indianapolis
The Jaguars always play this one close. Getting eight or more points at home in a division game is too much, even against the Colts.
Houston -3 over OAKLAND
The Texans might actually have trouble throwing in this one, surprisingly. Too bad that with Arian Foster will be able to carry a big load and the Raiders offence isn’t exactly top-notch.
SAN DIEGO -9 over Arizona
The Chargers haven’t looked good on the road, but they’re a whole different monster at home. The Cardinals and Derek Anderson will have a really rough day.
PHILADELPHIA -7 over Washington
There will be a ton of emotion for Donovan McNabb’s return to Philadelphia and there will be a ton of yards for the Eagles passing game. How appropriate is it that McNabb campaigned to bring in Vick now?
Chicago +4 over NEW YORK GIANTS
They may be undefeated, but the Bears aren’t getting any points here. Weird, when you consider the Giants aren’t looking very good so far.
MIAMI (pick) over New England
The Pats traditionally have a tough time playing at Miami. The Dolphins should be able to exploit New England’s weak defence; look for a big day from Brandon Marshall.

Last week: 8-8
This season: 28-20

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