December 31, 2010

The final week of NFL picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Depending on how you look at it, this is either the toughest week to pick games or the easiest. With so many meaningless tilts and a few playoff-like showdowns, you really have to pick your spots.

What you have to do is, duh, look at who has something to play for – specifically, who has something to win for and who has something to lose for. What players have milestones in sight and who is nursing even the smallest injury?

After you’ve figured that all out, the picture should be a bit clearer as to why some lines have skewed higher or lower than usual. Like, if this was Week 10, would the Jets really only be favoured by one at home against the Bills? Of course not.

Good luck out there, after this week, the real games begin.

The lines are from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS
 
KANSAS CITY -4 over Oakland
The Chiefs have a slim shot of getting a bye, but a great shot at finishing the season undefeated at home.
 
NEW ENGLAND -4 over Miami
Even if the Patriots take their foot of the gas, they’ll do it after building up a nice enough lead. And with a team full of youngsters, don’t you want them playing?
 
INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Tennessee
The Titans have already folded up shop on this season and the Colts should be able to grab a big enough lead before resting everyone.
 
HOUSTON +2 over Jacksonville
The Jags may have their slim playoff hopes on the line, but they’re starting Trent Edwards at QB. Plus, they don’t have MoJo.
 
Pittsburgh -6 over CLEVELAND
The division’s on the line and the Steelers won’t back down.
 
Cincinnati +9 over BALTIMORE
This one smells like a back-door cover after the Ravens start resting.
 
DETROIT -3 over Minnesota
The Lions have one of the best records against the spread out of everyone. Joe Webb won’t ruin that.
 
WASHINGTON +4 over New York Giants
Am I crazy, or are the Redskins actually looking frisky with Rex Grossman at the helm?
 
GREEN BAY -10 over Chicago
The Bears say they’ll be playing everyone in this one, but I can’t see it happening.
 
Dallas (NL) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are locked in to third place, so Vick, DeSean and Asante Samuel are all sitting.
 
NEW YORK JETS -1 over Buffalo
Sure, the Jets clinched a playoff spot last week, but they don’t want to back into the playoffs losing four of their last five, right?
 
ATLANTA -14 over Carolina
I’m pretty sure that even if this game was meaningless, the Falcons would be favourites by at least a touchdown.
 
NEW ORLEANS -7 over Tampa Bay
The Bucs haven’t beaten a contender yet and the Saints need this win.
 
Arizona +6 over SAN FRANCISCO
Don’t expect the Niners to be playing hard for an interim coach with no shot at keeping his job.
 
San Diego -3 over DENVER
As great of a story as Tim Tebow has been, the Chargers should be seeking at least a little redemption.
 
St. Louis -3 over SEATTLE
This might possibly the worst Week 17 Sunday Night game ever. At least if the Rams win, we’ll have a .500 playoff team instead of a 7-9 one.
 
Last week: 9-7
This season: 128-104-5

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