October 12, 2012

It can’t get much worse + Week 6 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Last week, I think I had my worst record for a week of picks ever: A pathetic 3-11. The good news is that it can’t get much worse. I think I’m finally starting to get the league though. There are some teams masquerading as good that shouldn’t be giving the amount of points that they are. Let’s just hope I can turn this around, or else my precious streak of over .500 seasons will come to an end.

The lines are from 5Dimes and the home teams are in CAPS

Cincinnati (pk) over CLEVELAND

The battle of Ohio shouldn’t be this close. The Bengals are the far superior squad and the Browns have a legit shot at 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Indianapolis

The emotional uplift from coach Chuck Pagano’s hospitalizations should be over. Plus, this is an absolute must-win for the Jets. If they lose here, I’ll bet against them every week until Tim Tebow is starting.

Kansas City +3.5 over TAMPA BAY

Speaking of up-lifts, the Chiefs could get one from having Matt Cassel going out. It’s tough betting on Brady Quinn on the road, but the Bucs are ripe for the picking.

ATLANTA -9 over Oakland

This line feels way too low. The Falcons are absolutely soaring and could go unbeaten at home. The Raiders are getting too much respect coming off their bye.

Dallas +4 over BALTIMORE

The Cowboys are capable of giving good teams a run for their money on the road. My only fear is Tony Romo getting hurt and Kyle Orton blowing it.

Detroit +4.5 over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles can only win a close game, so giving more than a field goal is enough for me to bite on a Lions team that’s not too good.

St. Louis +3.5 over MIAMI

Two teams that nobody thought would be decent. The Dolphins aren’t the best home team, so take the points.

New England -4 over SEATTLE

Home dogs have been hitting so far this season, but I don’t want to bet against the Pats with Aaron Hernandez potentially returning.

Buffalo +5 over ARIZONA

It’s the stoppable force vs. the movable object! The Bills defensive line might actually get to the quarterback in this game.

Minnesota +1.5 over WASHINGTON

I think this one could end up being a shoot out. The Vikings will be able to move the ball against the ’Skins, but RG3 can keep them in it.

SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 over New York Giants

The Niners will get their revenge against the banged-up Giants.

HOUSTON -4 over Green Bay

This is sort the kind of game that I was talking about in the intro. The Packers might not be good. They haven’t really displayed the type of offence we’ve been expecting of them and that will really get tested in Houston.

Denver +2 over SAN DIEGO

Oh, you were thinking about betting against Peyton Manning on a Monday night in a key divisional matchup? Well I wouldn’t. Even if you can’t completely trust the Broncos defence. I’ll most likely end up regretting this pick.

This week: 0-1

Last week: 3-11

This season: 32-44-2

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