April 25, 2013

Some feelings about tonight’s NFL draft

by Dan Bilicki In: Football

You’ve now no doubt read my mock draft and are prepared for tonight’s big first-round. But here are a couple of things that couldn’t be expressed in the space that I was given. So here are some quick hit thoughts about tonight, the players, what teams may do and some predictions for the future of those guys getting their names called by the loathsome Roger Goodell.

-The draft, of course, will not play out like I’ve written it. The thing about a mock is that you have no way of really predicting draft-night trades and how they’ll shake things up. And once you start dealing with all the moving pieces of trades, it just makes figuring out the whole thing even more difficult. So, for my sanity’s sake, no trade are mocked up.

-For the first time since I started doing mock drafts a couple of years ago, I had a hard time fitting a QB into the first round. In fact, up until yesterday, I only had Geno Smith going to Minnesota at 25. I finally relented and had Smith going to Cleveland, but I still don’t feel great about it.

-If there were trades in my mock, at least one team would be seen trading back into the late first round to grab either Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib.

-I feel pretty confident with the fact that I don’t have a first-round running back. Only Eddie Lacy really fits the bill talent-wise, but he’s nothing like the all-around back that Trent Richardson was last year. You can definitely wait on a good back this year.

-The whole ‘Dee Milliner has had five surgeries’ thing scares me. If I were to bet, I’d say that he finishes two of his first four seasons on the IR or misses at least two games in each of his first three seasons.

-The Jaguars pick is a real wild card. With some many holes on that team, there’s no telling where they can go. I will say that Dion Jordan makes the most sense for them, but knowing Jacksonville, that doesn’t really matter.

-Tavon Austin’s stock has soared in the past week or so, as if his game tape has gotten better. I still see him settling right into the middle of the first round.

-Of the guys that I’ve dropped out of the first round – Menelik Watson, Damontre Moore, Margus Hunt, Arthur Brown, Jonathan Hankins, Sylvester Williams – my guess is that Watson and Williams have the best chance of making it back in. The guy with the least chance? Moore.

-With two picks each in the first, the Jets, Rams and Vikings are good bets to make some trades. If the Vikes really want Austin to replace Percy Harvin, they’ll have to jump up around 10 slots.

-I think that the Dolphins will make the deal for Branden Albert. You’re better off getting a tested and true tackle for a second-round pick than rolling the dice with your first rounder.

-This will be one of the least-watched recent first rounds. There’s no big names and all the talent is at non-marquee positions. The lay-fan won’t care about the linebacker, lineman or safety their team drafts too much.

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