September 13, 2013

The Patriots look troubled + Week 2 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

You have to think that the Patriots could be in some real trouble.

Everybody seems to think that Tom Brady can work with just about any group of receivers and turn it into gold. Last night proved otherwise.

With the exception of Julian Edelman, who has worked with Brady for years, the Pats receiving core had a terrible game. The next two best wide outs against the Jets were Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, who combined for five catches on 17 targets. In two games, Thompkins now has six catches on a whopping 21 targets.

There were several times last night when both guys clearly made the wrong cut and saw the ball fly over their heads. Brady, of course, was understandably upset.

As long as Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are out of the lineup, I would find it very hard to give too many points and would feel even worse about taking them on the road. And as for starting Brady on your fantasy team, I’d start looking into some insurance. He might be just a situational play depending on the matchup.

The lines are from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS

PHILADELPHIA -9 over San Diego

They’re trying to be new-look Chargers, but Phil Rivers is still Phil Rivers. He’s just not the same all-pro QB anymore. I’ll still take the Eagles even considering this line is inflated due to everyone falling in love with Chip Kelly after that one great half of football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland

The Ravens have had a long time – in football terms – to like their wounds after that shellacking in Denver. I expect them to take it out on the Browns.

Tennessee +10.5 over HOUSTON

Vegas must’ve missed the part where the Texans went down big against the Chargers on Monday. If that happens again, they won’t be able to dig their way out against the Titans’ stout defence.

Miami +2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts were a bit lucky to beat the Raiders, who will likely end up as either the worst, or second-worst team in the league. The Dolphins may not be bad.

Carolina -2.5 over BUFFALO

The Panthers just looked great on defence against a team much, much stronger than the Bills. EJ Manuel is going to be a fine QB, but he’s no Russell Wilson.

St. Louis +7.5 over ATLANTA

The Falcons have a great record at home, but time and time again they fail to close out teams. That’s why giving more than a touchdown to a team that could be a playoff contender is too dicey.

GREEN BAY -9 over Washington

If the 49ers defence can barely contain the Pack’s attack, how can Washington? RG3 will shake off the rust more and more by the week, but he’s not there yet.

Dallas +2.5 over KANSAS CITY

Let’s not get too pumped about the Chiefs beating the Jaguars. Andy Reid may know something about the Cowboys, but Dallas also knows a lot about him.

CHICAGO -7 over Minnesota

Sure, Adrian Peterson is awesome, but how can the Vikes move the ball if he’s gaining 17 yards on 15 carries? That one great run to open the game sure hid a lot of Minnesota’s woes.

New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY

Starting the season with two division rivalry games is good for the Saints to get their Bountygate aggression out. The Bucs should’ve beaten the Jets, but they won’t stand a chance here.

Detroit (pk) over ARIZONA

The Lions offence is scary good and their pass rush will dominate the line of scrimmage against the Cards. I expect both Megatron and Larry Fitzgerald to have huge days here.

Jacksonville +5.5 over OAKLAND

Wow. The Toilet Bowl already, eh? The Raiders shouldn’t be giving this many points to anybody, even if Terrelle Pryor looked half decent against the Colts.

Denver -4.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

You hate to overreact to Week 1, but Eli’s Giants looked sloppy and Peyton’s Broncos amazed. I’ll gladly give the 4.5 points on the road.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE

Yes, Colin Kaepernick keeps his eyebrow. The Niners QB showed that he doesn’t need to run to win a game and the Seahawks could only manage 12 points against the Panthers. And what a good game for Sunday night.

CINCINNATI -7.5 over Pittsburgh

So, it’s going to be one of those seasons for the Steelers. One game in and three key players already hurt and potentially lost for the season. It’s always a safe bet to go against a team that lost its star centre the week before facing a good defence.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 6-9-1
This season: 7-9-1

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