September 25, 2015

Kicking out the extra point + Week 3 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

Last week, Pittsburgh became the first team to really take advantage of the new extra point rules.

Instead of “playing it safe” and kicking the now-33-yard field goal for the extra point, the Steelers went for two on their first scores of the game before starting to kick the PAT with the game getting out of hand against the 49ers.

And really, it makes sense.

When you consider that you can try for two from the two-yard-line and make it roughly 50% of the time or kick a 33-yard field goal at a 95% rate, doesn’t it make more sense to go for it?

Of course, many see going for two as a risk, but over time the numbers show that you would come out marginally on top.

Whether more teams start to use this strategy remains to be seen, but I think that we will see an uptick in two-point attempts as the weeks move on.

At worst, all of the practice you put into the two-point attempts can be used in your goal-line packages, right?

The lines are from Vegas and the home team in CAPs.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington

You really felt like the Giants were going to blow, didn’t you? It’s really understandable considering the first two games of the season. But Washington was determined to lose this one.

Pittsburgh (pk) over ST. LOUIS

The Steelers get LeVeon Bell back to add to one of the best offences in the league. The Rams looked very vulnerable against Washington last week.

MINNESOTA -1 over San Diego

The Chargers are known to falter when heading east and it looks like Adrian Peterson just needs to get his legs underneath him.

Tampa Bay +7 over HOUSTON

Why can’t the Bucs head into Houston and cover against a team that can’t run the ball at all?

Philadelphia +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS

It will be tough against this amazing Jets defence, but the Eagles have to pull it together, right?

CAROLINA -3 over New Orleans

Cam Newton looks like he’s really in charge of his offence while Drew Brees is simply falling apart.

NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Jacksonville

If it wasn’t for some garbage-time points, the Pats really would’ve blown out the Bills, who are much better than the Jags.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati

The Bengals may be talented, but the Ravens are a better team at home.

CLEVELAND -3 over Oakland

This game is surprisingly interesting after both teams won last weekend. The passing game should be featured for both sides, but the Browns will be better at shutting it down with defence.

Indianapolis -3 over TENNESSEE

As we’ve been told during the first two losses of the season, the Colts are fantastic when facing division rivals.

Atlanta (pk) over DALLAS

The Cowboys are way too banged up to hold off a rising team like the Falcons.

ARIZONA -7 over San Francisco

The Cardinals surprisingly have a doable path to starting this season out 5-0 if they win games like this at home.

SEATTLE -15.5 over Chicago

The Bears look like the worst team in the league, will be heading into Seattle for the Seahawks home opener and will be starting Jimmy Clausen. That should be good for a massive loss.

Buffalo +2.5 over MIAMI

Wasn’t the Dolphins running game supposed to be good? Buffalo’s defence shouldn’t be in too tough, at least enough to justify taking the points.

DETROIT +3 over Denver

While the offence has its moments, the Broncos defence is supporting this team. As for the Lions, they need to turn it around now, or this will be a lost season.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Kansas City

If you want to bet against Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau Field during a prime time game, be my guest.

This week: 1-0

Last week: 9-7

This season: 18-14-1

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