October 20, 2017

NFL Week 7 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

The lines are from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPs.

Kansas City -3 over OAKLAND

There haven’t been many crazier finishes to Thursday night’s game than this one. Consider this sequence:

-Jared Cook’s TD is reversed and the ball is placed at the one-yard line with the time being wound down to eight seconds.

-An offensive pass interference call backs up the Raiders to the 11-yard line with three second left.

-A defensive holding call moves the ball up to the five on an incomplete pass with no time remaining.

-A defensive holding call moves the ball up to the two on an incomplete pass with no time remaining.

-Derek Carr finds Michael Crabtree with no time remaining.

-Giorgio Tavecchio, who was just 1/3 on FGs on the night, kicks the game-winning PAT.

Absolutely crazy stuff.

MIAMI -3 over New York Jets

These two teams are pretty much the opposite of what we expected to start the season. The Dolphins defence has carried them while their offence flounders and the Jets actually seem to have a will to live. We shouldn’t expect much from Josh McCown in this game, though.

Tennessee -5.5 over CLEVELAND

The way that the Browns keep on flip-flopping on QBs is seriously concerning. It’s nearly impossible to back a team at any price if they don’t trust in their own quarterback, be it DeShone Kizer, Kevin Hogan or whoever is behind centre.

L.A. Rams -3.5 over Arizona in London

It’s a really long flight for teams, so there’s no real advantage there. Adrian Peterson lit a fire in the Cardinals defence, but that game was mainly about the Bucs falling apart without Jameis Winston – and Arizona still nearly blew it.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Baltimore

The Vikings don’t seem to care who is under centre for them, they just seem to keep playing well. The Ravens can’t move the ball and it will only get tougher in Minnesota against a strong Vikings defence.

CHICAGO +3 over Carolina

The Bears came out of Baltimore with an OT win, but have played better at home this season. Carolina’s defence isn’t the same when Luke Kuechley isn’t out there. I’ll take the points.

Jacksonville -3 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts’ two wins this season have come against winless teams while the Jags seem to be following a ‘one win, one loss’ pattern. The Colts passing game isn’t great against average teams and should get eaten up against the Jags.

BUFFALO (NL) over Tampa Bay

Even if Jameis Winston is healthy, this will be a tough matchup for the Bucs. And if it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick, well, we don’t think he’s getting a revenge game against the Bills.

New Orleans -5.5 over GREEN BAY

A 12-point swing in the line doesn’t scare me. Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but the biggest factor we should look at is that the Saints defence is creating turnovers and winning games. Heck, it scored three times against Detroit last week.

SAN FRANCISCO +6 over Dallas

The Cowboys are coming off their bye, but are facing even more Ezekiel Elliott drama. The Niners are switching to C.J. Beathard at QB after the rookie impressed in the pre-season. We know San Fran can keep things close, so why not grab the points against the underachieving Boys?

Cincinnati +5.5 over PITTSBURGH

The  Bengals are 3-0 after an 0-2 start and will be getting Vontaze Burfict back just in time for this rivalry game. Something isn’t right with Big Ben this season. Maybe his thoughts of retirement have taken effect.

Denver +1.5 over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

With no home-field advantage, it’s tough to take L.A. seriously against a fired-up Denver team that will be eager to bounce back from an embarrassing prime-time loss.

Seattle -5.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

We think last week’s win in Denver was a mirage for the ailing Giants. With a rested Seahawks team coming to town, we should see Eli and Co. shrivel.

Atlanta +3.5 over NEW ENGLAND

The Super Bowl rematch likely won’t feature a 25-point comeback. We should’ve known better last week taking Atlanta in a trap game, but their focus will be 100% on avenging February’s loss. And if there’s a recipe to getting an offence on track, this season it’s face the Pats.

Washington +5 over PHILADELPHIA

Washington will be out for revenge and have had a week off to prepare. The Eagles are certainly flying high, but the visitors have turned things around after struggling through their first two games.

Last week: 5-7

This season: 46-37-2

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