December 15, 2017

NFL Week 15 picks

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

The lines are from Vegas and the home teams in CAPs.

INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 over Denver

The Broncos defence looks like it’s finally playing up to the standard we expected coming into the season, but it’s only doing so against awful teams like the Jets and Colts.

Chicago +5.5 over DETROIT

The Lions are about as one-dimensional as you can get with their passing game basically their only strength. These two teams played out a close one a few weeks ago and this one should be the same.

KANSAS CITY +1.5 over Los Angeles Chargers

L.A. has been on a fantastic run, but let’s not just hand them the division so easily when they have to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat a Chiefs team that is getting back on track. Keenan Allen should have a big game with Marcus Peters hurt, but K.C. has been rolling on offence since Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties.

Arizona +4 over WASHINGTON

The Cards have looked surprisingly competent with Blaine Gabbert under centre and their defence has been doing well, too. Washington’s playoff hopes are over and there’s questions about the team’s future direction, so we don’t see them being too focused here.

Houston +11 over JACKSONVILLE

Between the Jags’ likely hangover after facing Seattle last week, Leonard Fournette yet again missing practice this week, a big amount of points to be laying and the fact that T.J. Yates is probably better than Tom Savage, it actually makes sense to back the Texans here.

CAROLINA -3 over Green Bay

We actually don’t think Aaron Rodgers will be too rusty or anything like that in his return from a broken collarbone. What we do think is that the Panthers are a better overall team than the Pack and have home-field advantage. Rodgers is amazing, but the rest of this team just needed overtime to beat lowly Cleveland.

NEW ORLEANS -15 over New York Jets

The Jets might’ve had some hope of keeping this one close if Josh McCown was playing, but with Bryce Petty, this one will be a laugher.

NEW YORK GIANTS +7.5 over Philadelphia

The Eagles are still a good team and even a scary playoff team with Nick Foles replacing Carson Wentz, but are they worth spotting more than a TD on the road against their biggest rival? The Giants kept it close against Dallas last week for three quarters, is that so out of the question here?

CLEVELAND +7 over Baltimore

The incompetent Browns are getting close to that elusive first win of the season and could get it here. The Ravens have dominated in their former home, but are coming off a rough game with the Steelers. They could be ripe for the picking.

Miami (NL) over BUFFALO

The Dolphins are -82 in point differential but somehow have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. The Bills are in the second wild-card spot at 7-6 and benched their starting QB for no reason a few weeks ago. Nothing in the AFC playoff race really makes sense.

MINNESOTA -10.5 over Cincinnati

The Vikings should be thrilled to be home after two tough games on the road in the NFC South. Their defence shouldn’t have any issue with Andy Dalton and the Bengals will be in tough trying to keep up with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs on the fast track.

Los Angeles Rams +2 over SEATTLE

The Seahawks defence just keeps suffering more injuries, leaving it a shell of its once-dominant self. The Rams have always been game against their NFC West rivals and could’ve beaten the Seahawks earlier this season.

PITTSBURGH +3 over New England

This is a risky one, for sure. The Pats are usually good coming off a loss, they’re on the road on a short week and have Rob Gronkowski back. But, I actually like the Steelers a bit more. They’re a rare home ‘dog, have a dynamite offence and this is essentially their Super Bowl. Win this one and the Steelers should have home-field advantage through the playoffs.

SAN FRANCISCO -2 over Tennessee

The Jimmy Garoppolo hype train is for real, and while it is starting to runaway a little bit – the Niners are favoured against an eight-win team? – the reality here is that the Titans have been awful for a few weeks now and Marcus Mariota is ailing.

Dallas -3 over OAKLAND

The Raiders simply can’t play defence and their passing game has turned to garbage. Derek Carr has looked like an average QB at best this season.

Atlanta -6.5 over TAMPA BAY

The Bucs have quit and there are going to be some changes in the off-season – if not earlier. It might be time to reevaluate what they have in Jameis Winston, too, or at least get him a coach to help mould him into the star QB he can be.

Last week: 6-8

This season: 106-84-7

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