December 20, 2019

NFL Week 16 selections

by Dan Bilicki In: Football, Picks

The lines are from oddsshark.com and the home teams are in CAPs.

Houston -3 over TAMPA BAY

The Bucs are down their two Pro Bowl receivers, which should make life hard for the mistake-prone Jameis Winston. Beating the Lions is one thing, but taking down a playoff team like the Texans is much different.

Buffalo +6.5 over NEW ENGLAND

The Pats’ offensive struggles have been well-documented, but the Bills aren’t a juggernaut either. This should be a defensive battle, like their first game. New England needed some luck to win that one in Buffalo – will it get that again? Feels like a field goal settles this one.

Los Angeles Rams +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO

Both NFC West rivals are coming off an off-week, so this is about who can bounce back better. The 49ers are in a bit of slump and have some injury concerns on defence with Richard Sherman out. Seems safer to take the points.

TENNESSEE +3 over New Orleans

The Saints blew the doors off the Colts, who have faded severely down the stretch due to injuries. But this is an outdoors game against a desperate Titans team that just suffered a big setback in their playoff chase. This should be a great, close game.

ATLANTA -7 over Jacksonville

The overhaul is starting in Jacksonville with Tom Coughlin out the door, but it’s too late for this season. Both teams are playing for coaches likely to be fired, but the Falcons at least seem to be interested in saving their guy’s job.

Baltimore -10 over CLEVELAND

Betting against Lamar Jackson is about as scary as it gets. And betting on a Cleveland team showing up and doing well against the Ravens twice in one season is even scarier. With Baltimore able to wrap up top spot in the AFC and essentially get the next two Sundays off, the Ravens should be fully motivated.

Carolina +7 over INDIANAPOLIS

Look, we don’t get it, but for some reason QBs have been solid selections in their first career starts this season. With Will Grier getting his against the banged-up Colts, we can see a backdoor cover here.

Cincinnati +1 over MIAMI

Two teams, four total wins. The Dolphins have used a record number of players this season, while the Bengals still have a few more decent pieces on offence. We’ll shrug our shoulders and take the point.

Pittsburgh -3 over NEW YORK JETS

Is a Le’Veon Bell revenge game incoming? Probably not. The Steelers have James Conner back to anchor the run game and their defence has been solid. The Jets are about as inconsistent as they get.

WASHINGTON -2.5 over New York Giants

If not for last week’s crazy finish, Washington would have come into this game with four straight covers. The Giants, on the other hand, are turning back to Daniel Jones after Eli Manning got his sendoff. There’s not much to like about either team, but it at least feels like Washington has more momentum coming in.

DENVER -7 over Detroit

There’s not a lot to be excited about with the Lions, even with Kerryon Johnson looking set to return. Coach Matt Patricia will be back next season, for some reason, which we don’t see rallying the troops.

L.A. CHARGERS -7 over Oakland

The Chargers have played close games for most of the season, but their past two have been blowouts. But, with nothing to play for on either side, I think we see Philip Rivers and Co. rack up some yards and points against a Raiders team that is resting its best offensive weapon, Josh Jacobs.

Arizona +9.5 over SEATTLE

The Seahawks record at home against the spread is actually nothing to write home about. Arizona isn’t going to truly threaten to knock off the hosts, but a backdoor cover is certainly in the Cards.

PHILADELPHIA +2.5 over Dallas

When it comes to talent, the Cowboys have the edge here. But the Eagles have the coaching and home-field advantages. If Dallas wins, it’s in the playoffs, but Jerry’s boys never make things easy.

CHICAGO +6 over Kansas City

This pick comes down to defence and the Bears have the advantage, having been able to slow the Chiefs last season. Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t been awful in the past few weeks, which is somewhat of an improvement.

Green Bay +5.5 over MINNESOTA

With Dalvin Cook out, the Vikings offence takes a huge hit. Kirk Cousins’ aversion to prime-time games is well-documented while Aaron Rodgers is quite the opposite. Taking the Pack and the points seems almost too easy.

Last week: 8-7-1

This season: 116-97-6

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