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	<title>Running The Point &#187; Picks</title>
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		<title>Predictions for a new MLB season</title>
		<link>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/03/28/predictions-for-a-new-mlb-season/ </link>
		<comments>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/03/28/predictions-for-a-new-mlb-season/ #comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2012 16:30:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Bilicki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Picks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://runningthepoint.com/?p=2321</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just in case you didn&#8217;t notice, the MLB regular season opened today. You might not have cared — unless you&#8217;re a fantasy MLB player or a Mariners or A&#8217;s fan — because the first pitch was around 6 a.m. this morning.
I could rant about starting the season in Japan while spring training is still going [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just in case you didn&#8217;t notice, the MLB regular season opened today. You might not have cared — unless you&#8217;re a fantasy MLB player or a Mariners or A&#8217;s fan — because the first pitch was around 6 a.m. this morning.</p>
<p>I could rant about starting the season in Japan while spring training is still going on for every other team in baseball, but I&#8217;ve done that before and really, it makes no sense. At least they sent Ichiro and Co. out there to draw some crowds that probably wouldn&#8217;t be matched stateside.</p>
<p>So, what&#8217;s the point of this post? Well since the season has started, why not keep up my tradition by throwing out some predictions, preview-style. Hey, it worked pretty well for my NBA predictions, where I called that Dwight Howard would finish the season with Orlando, but Derrick William would win rookie of the year.</p>
<p>-The Yankees will win 100 games. This is a team that won 97 games last year, can still rake on offence, didn&#8217;t lose any important pieces and improved their rotation significantly. A-Rod even went to Germany for that experimental Kobe Bryant-style blood treatment. What&#8217;s not to like here?</p>
<p>-The Red Sox will still do alright. Sure, their rotation isn&#8217;t the greatest, but the Yankees&#8217; wasn&#8217;t last year either. Their lineup can do some damage and they can&#8217;t possible suffer through as many injuries as last year.</p>
<p>-Detroit has the AL Central locked up. Cleveland might be able to compete with them, but the Tigers are loaded up for a nice run. Even if their defence will be garbage.</p>
<p>- Jose Bautista won&#8217;t lead the majors in HRs. His number won&#8217;t be as rough as his second-half split from last year, but they won&#8217;t be as good as 2010 or the first half of 2011.</p>
<p>-We&#8217;re going to have some great races thanks to the extra wild card. Between Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas, the Angels and maybe even the Jays, Indians or Royals, three spots are up for grabs in the AL. Then in the NL, there&#8217;s even more parity, especially with Miami and Washington coming up in the East and the Central getting hurt by free agent departures.</p>
<p>-The Cubs will not win the World Series. But at least Theo Epstein can start them down the right path.</p>
<p>-Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw won’t repeat their amazing seasons. Kemp won’t lead the NL in home runs and nearly get the Triple Crown and Kershaw won’t win the pitching Triple Crown. The fact that they accomplished what they did last season was marvelous enough, there’s no way they can repeat it.</p>
<p>-Adrian Gonzalez will win the AL MVP. The Yankees&#8217; lineup is great and balanced, same with Texas. The</p>
<p>As for Albert Pujols, who knows if L.A. even makes the playoffs?</p>
<p>-The biggest surprises (players): Aroldis Chapman (finally getting a chance to close?), Ichiro (bounce back from last year), Mark Buehrle (surprisingly good after switching leagues?).</p>
<p>-The biggest surprises (teams): Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals.</p>
<p>-The biggest disappoints (players): Brett Lawrie (can&#8217;t possibly match his stellar 2011 stint), Michael Pineda (Slumped in second half of 2011, showed up overweight), Ryan Braun (PED scandal will hang over his head)</p>
<p>-The biggest disappointments (teams): Toronto, Milwaukee, Atlanta.<br />
-So, to round things up, here are the 2012 playoffs&#8230;<br />
AL East: New York Yankees.<br />
AL Central: Detroit Tigers.<br />
AL West: Texas Rangers.<br />
AL wildcards: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays.<br />
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies.<br />
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds.<br />
NL West: San Francisco Giants.<br />
NL wildcards: Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks.<br />
AL championship: Yankees over Rangers.<br />
NL championship: Phillies over Marlins.<br />
World Series: Yankees over Phillies.</p>
<p>Oh, and in case you wanted to know, the Mariners won this morning in extra innings, 3-1.</p>
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		<title>Congrats, Giants, but Eli is no Hall of Famer</title>
		<link>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/06/congrats-giants-but-eli-is-no-hall-of-famer/ </link>
		<comments>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/06/congrats-giants-but-eli-is-no-hall-of-famer/ #comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:22:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Bilicki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Picks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/06/congrats-giants-but-eli-is-no-hall-of-famer/ </guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’m sure everybody is Super Bowled out by now after two weeks of setup stories, six hours of pregame Sunday, three quarters of blah and one hell of a finish last night, but guess what: I’m writing about my thoughts on the Super Bowl today.
-What in the hell was Tom Brady thinking on that safety? [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m sure everybody is Super Bowled out by now after two weeks of setup stories, six hours of pregame Sunday, three quarters of blah and one hell of a finish last night, but guess what: I’m writing about my thoughts on the Super Bowl today.</p>
<p>-What in the hell was Tom Brady thinking on that safety? Was there really no safe area on the field to let that pass rip? Nobody by the sidelines that he could sky it over? No runningback in the flat that he could bounce it to? He is way too smart to have that happen, especially on the Patriots’ first play of the game. I’m sure that his defence was pissed for only getting one play off after forcing a punt.</p>
<p>-Speaking of punts, wouldn’t it have been cool to see Giants punter Steve Weatherford named the game’s MVP? That was one of the finest displays of punting I’ve ever seen on the big stage. He continually made the Pats start deep in their own area and helped the Giants crush in the special teams battle.</p>
<p>-You have to feel happy for Cousin Sal, who won his ‘Prop of the year’ bet very early when Harry Hynoski bowled over a defender on his way to a first down, eclipsing his personal over/under of 4.5 yards. Sal famously picked Gary Russell to not score a TD when Pittsburgh beat Arizona a few years back and we all know how that turned out.</p>
<p>-After that huge hit on Hakeem Nicks in the second quarter, what were the Giants thinking on third down? A five-yard in route when you need 10 yards is never good. Settling for a field goal could have killed them in the end.</p>
<p>-Did anybody else notice that Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft was on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week? It looks like the SI curse lives on.</p>
<p>-Let’s be completely honest here: The Patriots’ vaunted receivers, especially their tight ends, let them down here. Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker all had poor games. Welker’s drop was the true ‘what if’ moment of the game, but all of those guys really played poorly on the big stage.</p>
<p>-If Ahmad Bradshaw had stopped on the one-yard line instead of awkwardly scoring, I think that would have been the right move. It’s really a moot point because either way, the Giants would have won, but by stopping, Brady would have only had 16 seconds for to get into range and launch a field goal – with no timeouts. I don’t think any QB could pull that off.</p>
<p>-If Hernandez catches that Hail Mary or if Gronkowski scoops it up on the rebound, would that not instantly become one of, if not the best play in Super Bowl history? How many game-winning TDs have been scored with the clock striking zeroes? None. That would have been historic.</p>
<p>-And, while I do congratulate Eli Manning for winning his second Super Bowl and second MVP, I still don’t consider him elite or a future Hall of Famer. Hall of Famers should be the best of their eras, not just big game winners. At best, Manning is the third-best QB in the league right now behind Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He’s about dead-even with Brady. I think it would be a disservice to say that since he won two Super Bowls, that’s an automatic ticket into Canton. I’m not buying it.</p>
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		<title>The big pick for the big game</title>
		<link>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/03/the-big-pick-for-the-big-game/ </link>
		<comments>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/03/the-big-pick-for-the-big-game/ #comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:39:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Bilicki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Picks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://runningthepoint.com/2012/02/03/the-big-pick-for-the-big-game/ </guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s the finale of the football season. It’s the biggest game in the world – well, maybe just North America, but you get the point. It’s the Super Bowl.
This year’s game is a rematch of a classic from just four years ago, when – I’m sure you’ve heard by now – the New York Giants [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s the finale of the football season. It’s the biggest game in the world – well, maybe just North America, but you get the point. It’s the Super Bowl.</p>
<p>This year’s game is a rematch of a classic from just four years ago, when – I’m sure you’ve heard by now – the New York Giants ended the New England Patriots’ perfect season. It’s really a shame that this game will be compared to that Super Bowl, since we have a potential classic brewing that can easily stand on its own in the annals of time.</p>
<p>On one side, we have Tom Brady. Everybody’s favourite pretty-boy quarterback who is looking to win his fourth Super Bowl and tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw’s record. He can also break Montana’s record for playoff wins by claiming victory on Sunday.</p>
<p>His Patriots squad features Rob Gronkowski, a tight end that set just about every receiving record at his position this season, including leading the league in touchdowns. On his worst days, he’s still a matchup nightmare. The only break that the Giants get by facing him now is that he’ll be slightly hobbled by a high ankle sprain suffered in the Conference Championship game.</p>
<p>Don’t forget about Wes Welker either. He has been one of the most consistent targets as a receiver in the entire league since coming to New England and is threat to get a first down on any play.</p>
<p>On the other side of the ball, there’s Eli Manning. He’s trying desperately to step out of his big brother’s shadow and now he gets a chance to win his second Super Bowl while playing in Peyton’s (soon to be former) home stadium.</p>
<p>He has two amazing playmakers at receiver in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Both have shown in recent weeks that they can turn any catch – even a simple seven-yard slant – into a massive gain. These guys routinely take poor-tackling secondaries to school.</p>
<p>The G-Men’s running game should not be overlooked either, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs aptly carrying the ball recently. If they can establish the ground game, the Pats could be in trouble.</p>
<p>Both of these offences can shred opponents, and that’s why this game’s decisive factor should come from the defensive side of the ball.</p>
<p>It has been well documented how dominant the Giants’ pass rush can be and how that allows them to create pressure while only rushing four. That, of course, allows them to drop more players into coverage and frustrate opposing receivers. But is it a guarantee that they can do so against an offensive line as strong as the Pats and a quarterback as smart and quick as Brady? I’m not so sure.</p>
<p>When the Patriots are on defence, well, let’s put it this way: If New England wins, they will boast the worst defence to ever win a Super Bowl – by a large margin.</p>
<p>Even so, they have looked good so far in the playoffs and they’re getting key contributions from guys like Julian Edelman (a wide receiver) and Sterling Moore (cut from the Raiders’ practice squad).</p>
<p>Also, it can’t be discounted that Bill Belichick is one of the most brilliant minds in football, leaps and bounds ahead of the league – including Tom Coughlin.</p>
<p>So how do you pick against one of those two teams? Well, in a couple of now-famous words “Nobody believes in us.” Ever since betting began on this game, everybody has been pounding the Giants, almost immediately lowering the line from 3.5. It even dipped to 2.5 on some boards. So why no love for a team that has only lost three games all season? It’s because the Giants are the hot, chic team. Well, after two weeks to sit down and think about it, the pressure should be on New York.</p>
<p>A Patriots win here would be the picture perfect end to their story: They redeem themselves for the “18-and-none” season, they do so in the city of another recent heartbreak, they crush their rival’s little brother and all after Tom Brady gets dressed sitting at Peyton Manning’s locker.</p>
<p>It’s not quite a Tim Tebow-level miracle script, but it’s damn good and I’m willing to follow it.</p>
<p>The pick: New England -3<br />
The score: Patriots 24, Giants 20<br />
The playoffs: 5-5<br />
Regular season: 131-120-2</p>
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		<title>Baltimore and San Fran get their scapegoats</title>
		<link>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/01/23/baltimore-and-san-fran-get-their-scapegoats/ </link>
		<comments>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/01/23/baltimore-and-san-fran-get-their-scapegoats/ #comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:02:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Bilicki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Picks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://runningthepoint.com/?p=2287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My uneducated guess is that late on Sunday afternoon, in the Baltimore area and in the living rooms of Ravens fans everywhere, the name Billy Cundiff was probably shortened into a very similar sounding swear.
Later in the evening, across the country, San Francisco residents and 49ers fans were probably attaching a few nasty adjectives to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My uneducated guess is that late on Sunday afternoon, in the Baltimore area and in the living rooms of Ravens fans everywhere, the name Billy Cundiff was probably shortened into a very similar sounding swear.</p>
<p>Later in the evening, across the country, San Francisco residents and 49ers fans were probably attaching a few nasty adjectives to the name of backup return man Kyle Williams.</p>
<p>Those, right there were the two goats that essentially cost their teams a chance at playing in the Super Bowl.</p>
<p>Granted, those plays cost their teams their respective conference championships, but there is one thing that few are bringing up: Cundiff’s kick would only have taken their game to overtime. There was no guarantee that A) the Ravens would even get the ball or B) that Joe Flacco could do anything with it if he did.</p>
<p>On the drive that led to Cundiff’s terrible shank left, Flacco and Co. had several chances to punch it into the endzone and couldn’t do it. Including a ball caught by Lee Evans and then batted out of his hands just in time – great defensive play by the way. This game could have played out like it should have, Tom Brady could have marched down the field in overtime and scored, then who would be to blame?</p>
<p>At least in this scenario, the Ravens now have a scapegoat and Cowboys fans (Cundiff used to kick for Dallas) get a little I-told-you-so redemption.</p>
<p>Williams, on the other hand, should just be hanging his head. First, he booted a punt that was recovered by the Giants in the fourth quarter, leading to score. Then, in overtime, he fumbled a return that would lead to the game-winning field goal.</p>
<p>Niners fans have to playing the what-if game in their heads right now, wondering if they’d be booking a trip to Indianapolis if Ted Ginn was in the lineup instead of injured on the sidelines.</p>
<p>So, prepare for two weeks full of rematch and redemption talk. It’s the Patriots facing the Giants, who ruined their perfect season in the Super Bowl a mere four years ago.</p>
<p>This week: 0-2<br />
The playoffs: 5-5</p>
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		<title>Who&#8217;s going to the Super Bowl?</title>
		<link>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/01/20/whos-going-to-the-super-bowl/ </link>
		<comments>http://runningthepoint.com/2012/01/20/whos-going-to-the-super-bowl/ #comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2012 20:24:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Bilicki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Picks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://runningthepoint.com/2012/01/20/whos-going-to-the-super-bowl/ </guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s the second biggest day on the football calendar this Sunday, so let’s not mince words and just get to the picks.
NEW ENGLAND -7 over Baltimore
Let’s face it; there is no team that can cover the Patriots two amazing tight ends. If there was one, it could have been the Ravens of a few years [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s the second biggest day on the football calendar this Sunday, so let’s not mince words and just get to the picks.</p>
<p>NEW ENGLAND -7 over Baltimore<br />
Let’s face it; there is no team that can cover the Patriots two amazing tight ends. If there was one, it could have been the Ravens of a few years ago, when Ray Lewis was a few years younger and Ed Reed wasn’t as consistently banged up. In fact, it’s almost a certainty that Reed will not be 100% for Sunday.</p>
<p>If there’s one thing to worry about, it’s that the Patriots have not beaten a winning team all season. That is unless you include the Broncos last week, who were technically 9-8, but 8-8 in the regular season.</p>
<p>But then you have to figure how bad the Ravens were away from Baltimore. They went 8-0 at home, but were a weak 4-4 on the road, including a loss at Jacksonville of all places.</p>
<p>The Pats defence was terrible in the regular season, but looked to have really come together last week. It’s not like the Ravens offence is very tough to contain either. Just keep Ray Rice in check, stop Torrey Smith when he goes deep and watch for screens. That seems like the only ways they can move the ball.</p>
<p>And if you’re picking the Ravens to win on Sunday, all you have to remember is that you’re betting against Tom Brady at home. That should be enough said.</p>
<p>SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over New York Giants<br />
Think about the how the playoffs work and how the Super Bowl usually turns out. How many times do we really get that perfect matchup? The one with all the season-long storylines that come together or a possible rematch of a classic past game usually never happens. So that’s why the 49ers will win on Sunday.</p>
<p>That would deny of us of two potential Super Bowl rematches involving the Giants, including the one that everyone wants to see: New York taking on New England.</p>
<p>But this isn’t just a pick because of that storyline; the Niners are talented enough to win this game. They’ve already beaten the Giants at Candlestick once this season and they’re defence is among the best in football.</p>
<p>The Giants are in peak form, but I don’t see them being able to break huge plays thanks to sloppy tackling. That is the huge reason why Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks were able to make those massive gains was because their opponents had terrible form when trying to take them down.</p>
<p>The Niners’ offensive line is also strong enough to contain New York’s vaunted pass rush. They’ll have to bring some blitzes in order to get consistent pressure on Alex Smith.</p>
<p>And don’t think that John Harbaugh isn’t playing the ‘Nobody believes in us’ card. This game is tailor-made for it and the Giants should be coming in overconfident after beating Green Bay last week.</p>
<p>Last week: 2-2<br />
The playoffs: 5-3</p>
<p><em>Follow me on Twitter @danbilicki</em></p>
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