This weekend in the NFL playoffs, no fewer than three massive bandwagons drove off the proverbial cliff and into the pit of elimination. That’s a lot of fair-weather fans that now have to decide on a new team to support for a couple of weeks, or just stop following the playoffs – but we know that won’t happen.

So let’s look at the bandwagons that will have to wait until next season to start up again.

-The Denver Broncos: Let’s face it; this bandwagon should really be called the Tim Tebow bandwagon. After a stunning overtime win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, this team picked up a lot of believers. It was just too bad that the Patriots didn’t read the script. Tom Brady and Co. came out strong and just dominated Tebow and a defence that looked surprisingly beleaguered. Really, we all should have seen this coming. New England already dominated the Broncos once this season and there was really no sign that they wouldn’t do it again.

-The New Orleans Saints: This one was pretty heartbreaking since I had picked them to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. But they really showed that you do need some semblance of defence to win in the playoffs. They allowed Alex Smith to march down the field not once, but twice to take the lead in the fourth quarter and eventually win it. Drew Brees and the offence didn’t really help the cause, turning over the ball five times. It’s hard to come back from that.

-The Green Bay Packers: During the week, many brought up how the Giants were built the right way to give the Packers headaches. A strong pass rush and playmaking receivers. Well, that’s exactly how they beat them. Green Bay looked sloppy and overmatched by the visitors – certainly something we couldn’t have expected from a team that had lost just once in their past 19 games. So, yet again, we won’t be seeing a repeat.

So, who’s left? Well I see the Giants and Patriots picking up a lot of fans over the next week. And who wouldn’t like to see a rematch of Super Bowl XLII?

This week: 2-2
This playoffs: 5-3

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There are two big stats at play this week for picking NFL division round playoffs games – and I’m going to ignore both of them. Sure, that may seem unwise, but streaks, like rules, are made to be broken.

First, since this version of NFL playoff format started, over 70% of home teams won their divisional round matchups. Now, that can be mainly due to the fact that they were likely the better team having finished higher in the standings, or that they had a bye week leading into the game. Plus, of course, they had home-field advantage.

Second, in the past 26 playoff games that favourites have won, they have also covered the spread. So, the Sports Guys’ manifesto rule of ‘don’t pick an underdog unless you think they can win,’ has been holding pretty true recently.

Well, don’t expect me to follow the trends here, it’s all about rational gut picks.

The lines are from Vegas and the home teams are in CAPS.

New Orleans -3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Here’s the pick that flaunts it against the first trend. It’s not very often that the visiting team in the playoffs is better than its host in Round 2, but that’s not the case here. The Saints are the superior team and they’re red hot. They’ve covered the spread nine weeks in a row and I can’t see them stopping here.

The Niners’ defence is incredibly strong, but have you seen the way that Drew Brees has been playing? San Francisco is incredibly strong against the run, but the Saints only use that as a changeup to their passing attack.

And do you really want to bet on Alex Smith getting the better of Brees in a game of this magnitude?

NEW ENGLAND -13.5 over Denver
There’s actually another trend that I didn’t mention above that I’ll be going against: Tom Brady is on a 35-1 run at home during the regular season, but he’s 0-2 in the playoffs at home. That will most certainly change.

A lot of people will credit Tim Tebow and Denver’s defence for their shock win over Pittsburgh last week, but I’m crediting the Steelers’ injury woes. They were down practically their entire defensive line, some of their offensive line and Big Ben could barely move without shrieking in pain during the first half.

The Patriots have already beaten the Broncos this season and they did that at Mile High in the friendly confines of Gillette, they’ll be able to run up the score against the overachievers.

Houston +7.5 over BALTIMORE
Yes. I am seriously taking T.J. Yates on the road in a playoff game, in Baltimore. He looked rattled at home last week against Cincinnati, so yes, I might be crazy. But this game is going to be about defence and rushing and these two teams are not eight points different in those categories.

Ray Rice and Arian Foster are essentially even and the two defences are pretty much on par now that Wade Phillips is back from surgery. He’ll be looking to polish up that resume too now that Tampa Bay is reportedly interested in making him their new head coach.

So, the Ravens will win, but they won’t cover – breaking trend No. 2.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over New York Giants
A lot has been said about how the Giants are built the perfect way to challenge the Packers – strong pass rush from their front four, playmaking passing game, an effective power rushing game that’s coming on – but I just can’t see Aaron Rodgers going down that easily.

Even if the Giants are rushing four great guys against a banged-up Packers offensive line, New York’s coverage guys won’t be strong enough to contain the massive amount of receiving talent that Green Bay has.

As for when the Giants have the ball, Eli Manning is good, but he’s not exactly consistent. Also, Brandon Jacobs has been trending up, but form is only temporary, class is permanent – something he doesn’t have.

I see this going down like the Saints-Lions tilt last week: The ’dogs threatening for a backdoor cover and getting it, but the favourites pulling away afterwards.

Last week: 3-1

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Can a team like the Denver Broncos use the oh-so-powerful idiom of “nobody believes in us,” when it has become clear that most of the world might be rooting for their quarterback?

Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos did it again on Sunday, stunning the heavily-favoured Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime and advancing to the next round of the playoffs to face the mighty New England Patriots.

Against the Steelers’ vaunted defence, Tebow had a surprisingly decent game. He may have only complete 10-of-21 passes, but thanks to the yards after the catch by Demaryius Thomas on the overtime winner, Tebow compiled 316 total yards.

In fairness, it must be said that Denver’s defence did a lot of the heavy lifting. They created turnovers, got stops and had a couple of big knock downs in the passing game. They even got a bit of luck with that bad snap in the fourth quarter that pushed Pittsburgh out of field goal range – a potential three points that would have drastically altered the game no doubt.

So, does everybody believe in the Broncos’ mystical, potentially ‘divine’ abilities? Well I’m sure they have a lot more believers after Sunday. How that affects them going into New England, who has already dismantled the Broncos – at Mile High no less – just a few weeks ago? Will Tom Brady have another field day against a defence that looked a lot better than in previous weeks? Will the Pats defence be able to pressure Tebow like the last time they met?

Oh, and the asterisk in the title is of course because overtime last as long as it took Thomas to sprint those 80 yards past defenders. Quite a sight.

This week: 3-1
This playoffs: 3-1
This season: 131-120-2

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