While I did start 7-8 last week, the first week of the season is always the toughest to pick. Even week two is no easy ride as there isn’t a true way to pick up patterns yet or truly analyze players impacts from a single outing. While all that sounds like pre-existing excuses for a bad week of picks, I assure that these will be winners.
As always, the home teams are in CAPS and the lines are straight from Vegas.
Oakland + 3 over KANSAS CITY
While the Chiefs did fair well against Baltimore in their loss, the Raiders fared even better against the Chargers in their loss. I’ll gladly take the points here.
TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
The Titans can make even the best teams look bad and they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game. If the Texans fall here, their bandwagon is going to get really empty really quick.
New England -3 over NY JETS
Bill Belichick always takes games against the Jets personally and if you don’t think Brady will have better rhythm with his receivers this week, you’re crazy.
GREEN BAY -9.5 over Cincinnati
Some will say the Bengals were a bad bounce away from winning last week. But that was against the Broncos, not a Super Bowl contender like the Packers.
Minnesota -9.5 over DETROIT
Don’t get too fancy and outthink yourself on this one. Until the Lions get off the schneid, I’ll be betting against them every time.
New Orleans (pick) over PHILLY
Be it Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb or Jeff Garcia under centre, the Eagles won’t be able to produce points like the Saints can.
Carolina +6 over ATLANTA
Division games are always close and I wouldn’t want to risk giving away six points. And can Jake Delhomme really get worse? I mean, he has to get better than 11 turnovers in two games, right?
St. Louis +9.5 over WASHINGTON
Do the Redskins have the weapons to cover this spread? I don’t think so, but I wouldn’t put money on this game if I were betting.
Arizona +3 over JACKSONVILLE
Kurt Warner made me regret drafting him last week with that poor performance. I can definitely see him and his all-pro receivers taking out their frustrations on the Jags.
Seattle +1.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners are the talk of the division after their win in the desert, but let’s not forget who has ruled the NFC West this decade.
Tampa Bay +5.5 over BUFFALO
It’s all downhill from here for Buffalo. The Bucs had many botched assignments on defence that led to huge plays for Dallas, I don’t expect it to happen again.
DENVER -3 over Cleveland
Is anybody going to watch this game? I mean, other than Brandon Marshall fantasy owners? The Broncos won’t have to wait for the last play to win this one.
SAN DIEGO -3 over Baltimore
Here are two teams that had uncharacteristic rough games against inferior opponents. I’m not feeling too great about the Ravens defence overall without Rex Ryan and their offence isn’t far enough along to beat up on the Chargers.
Pittsburgh -3 over CHICAGO
Both of these defensive titans will be without the key players. While that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’ll turn into a shootout, I think that Urlacher’s absence hurts the Bears more than Polamalu’s absence hurts the Steelers.
DALLAS -3 versus NY Giants
Even with the Cowboys favoured, I don’t feel good about this one. Perhaps Jerry Jones should have lobbied for an easier opponent to open his new mega-stadium against.
Indianapolis -3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins, a team that prides itself on not turning over the ball, killed themselves with turnovers against Atlanta. Against a contender like Indy, that can easily happen again.
Last week: 7-8.
This season: 7-8.