The lines are from oddsshark.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
Indianapolis +6.5 over BUFFALO
The Bills are one of the hottest teams in the league and have made an incredible leap season while several players have set franchise records. The Colts only scraped into the playoffs because the Dolphins fell in Buffalo last week – big time. So why back Indy here? Well, the Colts ability to run the ball and grind down the clock while also playing outstanding defence is a great recipe for an upset. Jonathan Taylor was ripping off huge games down the stretch behind an excellent offensive line while Xavier Rhodes should limit Stefon Diggs’ impact, somewhat. The biggest worry is Phillip Rivers playing in chilly Orchard Park, but you can’t overlook his surprisingly good numbers this season. Getting almost a TD helps, too.
L.A. Rams +3.5 over SEATTLE
John Wolford is obviously not Russell Wilson, but he really doesn’t need to be. The Rams have some very good pieces on defence and should hold an advantage there. The Seahawks defence has improved but with Jamal Adams a game-time decision, it’s hard to know how much impact he’ll have. L.A.’s offence was stifled a few weeks back in this matchup, but that was with Jared Goff – who is already quite average – playing through a bad thumb injury. Banking the points seems like the better idea here.
Tampa Bay -8.5 over WASHINGTON
We’ve been waiting for months to bet against the NFC East winner in the first round of the playoffs and we’re not going to do it now. News that the Football Team might rotate Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke at QB does nothing to persuade us from taking the road favourites here. Tom Brady might feel some pressure from Washington’s strong defensive line, but the savvy vet knows how to get rid of the ball quickly. This could get ugly.
Baltimore -3.5 over TENNESSEE
The Ravens certainly turned it on down the stretch, albeit against some of the league’s weaker teams. They also lost earlier this season to the Titans, but that was during a time when the team was dealing with many COVID issues. Tennessee will ride Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill off play action, but the Ravens defence will have many key pieces in the lineup that weren’t there in that loss. Lamar Jackson has a good chance of getting his first playoff win against the Titans soft defence. And don’t overlook the massive advantage in the kicking game that the Ravens hold here.
NEW ORLEANS -10 over Chicago
The Bears’ upstart offence finally faced a decent defence last week and looked fairly pedestrian in what at the time was a must-win game. Mitchell Trubisky is going to have his hands full again with the Saints defence which ranks even better than the Packers’ unit. New Orleans should also have superstar running back Alvin Kamara off the COVID list and maybe even Michael Thomas. That’s just too much for the Bears to handle in the Superdome.
PITTSBURGH -6 over Cleveland
The Browns barely scratched out a crucial win against the Steelers backups last week and now must do it again while facing their full-strength squad. To make matters worse, Cleveland is going to be without its head coach and offensive play-caller, Kevin Stefanski, for the game and also have some key players on the COVID list. The big worry about spotting the points is the Steelers playing down to their competition, as they did much of the season.
Last week: 10-5-1
This season: 112-124-9