The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl and it should really be no surprise to anyone.
Why? Because when Patrick Mahomes starts for the Chiefs, they have lost just a single game since Week 11 of the 2019 season.
This team has become a juggernaut, particularly on offence. K.C. has three players in Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill that are arguably the best at their positions and have not one, but two offensive geniuses running the show in coach Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy.
Despite investing a first-round pick in the running game by taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire 32nd overall, that aspect has largely been an afterthought in this offence. We wouldn’t expect much in the Super Bowl either, facing off against a Tampa Bay run defence that has ranked among the league’s best for two seasons.
That could be a real disadvantage for the Chiefs, with the forecast calling for rain and even a chance of thundershowers. If the game becomes a slog, that could help slow down K.C.’s speed-based passing game.
When these two teams met in the regular season, Hill famously torched the Bucs for more than 200 yards in the first quarter. If the Bucs didn’t learn anything from that performance and studied for two weeks on how to prevent that, well, they deserve to lose. Expect a much better plan this time around.
Mahomes’ other elite target might have some trouble getting open in this one, too. Kelce has been astounding this season, but will be going against a quick and talented group of linebackers which could cause some trouble. We wouldn’t expect him to get shut out, but if he’s limited, that puts a big dent in K.C.’s production.
The biggest advantage that the Bucs have is their defensive line. Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul can provide a ton of pressure off the edge while the return of Vita Vea, alongside Ndamukong Suh, causes problems for the interior linemen. Going against a Chiefs O-line that lost its starting left tackle in the NFC championship, the Bucs could be in Mahomes’ face most of the evening. If the Bucs can provide that pressure without having to blitz – Mahomes eats up blitzes – that’s a recipe for success to keep that high-powered offence off the field.
The big thing to watch when the Bucs have the ball is if the coaches play it smart and avoid running on first down. This has plagued them most of the season by putting Tom Brady and Co. in too many eventual third-and-long situations.
On defence, the Chiefs have well at one thing in particular: Make stops on third down. It may not sound like too much, but it’s a big factor in winning games when opponents can’t convert in key situations.
So, by allowing Brady to work his magic in the short passing game, it would be highly beneficially and keep the Bucs on the front foot.
With guys like Mike Evans on the outside and Chris Godwin operating as one of the league’s best slot receivers, it’s an excellent recipe to attacking the Chiefs defence.
As we’re sure everyone is aware, nobody has more Super Bowl experience than Brady and he shouldn’t have to be spectacular to win his first title away from Bill Belichick. All he needs to do is keep the ball moving and limit the mistakes. If he does that, maybe they will rename the town Tompa.
Super Bowl pick: Tampa Bay 31, Kansas City 28
Half time score: Kansas City 17, Tampa Bay 10
MVP: Tom Brady, TB
Conference championships: 0-2
Playoffs: 7-5
Season: 112-124-9
Nice job to finish up the season. The bucs were just too much for KC. Enjoy the break!