While you can still wait and be able to snag a fairly good option at QB later in the draft, it’s worth noting that the tiers are separating. In 2012, the difference between was five points per game, but in 2019 and ’20, that difference stretched to 10.
1. Patrick Mahomes, KC
4740 passing yards, 38 passing TDs, 6 INTs, 308 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 380.4 points.
Edged Allen as the QB1 in points per game and should remain near the top of his position while leading the Chiefs’ high-powered offence.
2. Josh Allen, BUF
4544 passing yards, 37 passing TD, 10 INTs, 421 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 405.5 points.
Last year’s top overall scorer, Allen has scored at least eight rushing TDs in each of his three seasons.
3. Lamar Jackson, BAL
2757 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 9 INTs, 1005 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 341.7 points.
After the highest-scoring fantasy season ever in 2019, Jackson slowed a bit, but remained QB8 in points per game.
4. Kyler Murray, ARI
3971 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 819 rushing yards, 11 TDs, 390.7 points.
Was second among QBs in rushing and was tied for seventh overall in rushing TDs.
5. Dak Prescott, DAL
1856 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 93 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 139.1 points.
Put up 371 yards per game – on pace for a near 6,000-yard season – before suffering a season-ending broken ankle.
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB
4299 passing yards, 48 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 149 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 387.7 points.
The 2020 MVP will look to move past his off-season drama and deliver another near-flawless season.
7. Russell Wilson, SEA
4212 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 513 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 372.7 points.
Russ was cooking in the first half of the season before the Seahawks went run-heavy. A new OC may open up the kitchen again.
8. Justin Herbert, LAC
4336 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 234 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 342.8 points.
Thrust into the starting role and never looked back, Herbert has potential to build on a stellar rookie season.
9. Jalen Hurts, PHI
1061 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 354 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 112.6 points.
In his three full games, he averaged 282 passing yards and 79 rushing yards, which would be 4,500/1,200 over a 16-game season.
10. Matthew Stafford, LAR
4084 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 112 rushing yards, 270.5 points.
Trade to the Rams from the Lions is a massive upgrade, but lack of rushing limits his fantasy stock.
11. Ryan Tannehill, TEN
3819 passing yards, 33 passing TDs, 7 INTs, 266 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 350.8 points.
He has been a top-10 fantasy QB in 16 of his 26 starts as a Titan and is fourth in points per game over the past two years.
12. Tom Brady, TB
4633 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 6 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 349.9 points.
From Week 10 on, Brady averaged 319 yards per game and threw 20 TDs and has one of the easier 2021 schedules.
13. Trevor Lawrence, JAC
2021 rookie
One of the top QB prospects in decades, Lawrence’s mobility and weapons give him QB1 upside.
14. Joe Burrow, CIN
2688 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 142 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 178.7 points.
Before his injury, Burrow was second in pass attempts, but just 14th in points. He has the weapons to make a big second-year leap.
15. Justin Fields, CHI
2021 rookie
It’s only a matter of time before he takes over for Andy Dalton – Fields should be worth a stash.
16. Kirk Cousins, MIN
4265 passing yards, 35 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 156 rushing yards, 1 TD, 319.2 points.
Led the league with 12 passing TDs last season when his team was trailing by 10+ points.
17. Matt Ryan, ATL
4581 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 11 INTs, 92 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 293.4 points.
New coach Arthur Smith prefers a more balanced attack, so look for a decrease in attempts after three straight seasons in the top three.
18. Trey Lance, SF
2021 rookie
Probably has a longer wait than Fields, but has an equally high fantasy upside under coach Shanahan.
19. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
1814 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 109 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 140.4 points.
The deck was stacked against Tua in his rookie season, but could be primed for a breakout in Year 2.
20. Baker Mayfield, CLE
3563 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 8 INTs, 165 rushing yards, 1 TD, 256.1 points.
The Browns’ run-heavy scheme limits Mayfield’s fantasy ceiling, even with Odell Beckham returning.
21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS
2091 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 8 INTs, 151 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 161.2 points.
Since 2015, the veteran gunslinger has thrown 110 TD passes, but also 68 INTs in 68 games.
22. Jameis Winston, NO
75 passing yards, -6 rushing yards, 2.4 points.
Despite not being drafted until 2015 or starting a game in 2020, Winston has the most turnovers in the NFL since the start of 2014.
23. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
3803 passing yards, 33 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 11 rushing yards, 277.2 points.
Big Ben is reportedly back to full health and has some good weapons, but likely isn’t more than a streaming option.
24. Derek Carr, LV
4103 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 9 INTs, 140 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 281.1 points.
In his seven seasons in the league, Carr is yet to post a top-10 fantasy finish and has limited volume.
25. Zach Wilson, NYJ
2021 rookie
Given the current state of the Jets rebuild, Wilson has more value in dynasty leagues than in redraft.
26. Daniel Jones, NYG
2943 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 10 INTs, 423 rushing yards, 1 TD, 190 points.
Turnovers have been his Achilles heel, with 22 INTs and 29 fumbles in his two seasons.
27. Carson Wentz, IND
2620 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 15 INTs, 276 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 252.2 points.
The only bright side is that reuniting with Frank Reich might rejuvenate the former Eagle, but we have doubts.
28. Jared Goff, DET
3952 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 99 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 252.9 points.
Moving to the Lions is a steep downgrade for a QB that was already struggling for fantasy relevance.
29. Taysom Hill, NO
928 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 457 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 154.6 points.
He’s a gadget player for sure, but every week that Hill started in 2020 he was a top-10 fantasy QB.