The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
CINCINNATI -7.5 over Jacksonville
In hindsight, it probably wasn’t smart to back the Bengals — even against the lowly Jags — by more than a TD on a Thursday night.
Washington -1.5 over ATLANTA
Despite their win last week, the Falcons are at the bottom of the league in DVOA ratings and the eye puts them around that level too. While it might be hard to stomach giving points on the road with Tyler Heinicke, he has shown flashes in his two starts.
Detroit +3 over CHICAGO
The Bears have to be in the running for most incompetently run team in the league after the way they hung Justin Fields out to dry last week. The Lions play their hearts out every week and should be good value getting points here.
NEW YORK JETS +7.5 over Tennessee
The Jets have their share of problems on offence, but the defence has looked alright at times. The Titans look like they may be without their top two WRs, which isn’t optimal when you need to spot more than a TD on the road.
MINNESOTA +2 over Cleveland
The Browns may rate highly, but haven’t faced the stiffest of competition in their two wins. The Vikings should get Dalvin Cook back which would provide a boost for an offence that looks to have good momentum.
MIAMI -2 over Indianapolis
Both teams have been disappointments so far this season, but we’ve got to pick one. The Dolphins showed some life against the Raiders last week and should return home looking to build on that against a banged-up Colts team.
Carolina +4.5 over DALLAS
The Cowboys might just be a missed pass interference call away from being 3-0 against some formidable opposition, but we’re still waiting for the other shoe to drop. The little mistakes are still there, especially from coach Mike McCarthy. But the Panthers have been equally impressive and have had an extra four days to prepare – even if they’ll be without Christian McCaffrey.
NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over New York Giants
Daniel Jones has somehow made it three games with just a single turnover, which we wouldn’t bet on continuing. The Saints defence can cause headaches for even top QBs, like Aaron Rodgers.
PHILADELPHIA +7.5 over Kansas City
It may be a short week for the Eagles and they’ll need to bounce back from the trouncing Dallas lay on them. The Chiefs are one of four teams that is 0-3 ATS this season and seem to have the stink of the Super Bowl loser curse on them.
Houston +16.5 over BUFFALO
The Bills might be the best team in the AFC after bouncing back huge from their Week 1 loss, but this is a tricky one. The Texans have had three extra days to get healthier and prepare while the Bills might be looking ahead to next week’s huge matchup with Kansas City.
Arizona +4.5 over L.A. RAMS
It’s hard to argue that the Rams are the best team in the NFL right now, but the Cardinals don’t look to be too far behind. In a rivalry game this close, we’ll take the points.
Seattle +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Seahawks have been on a great run against the 49ers, winning 13 of their past 15 contests with one loss coming in OT. There’s already QB controversy and a lot of injuries building up in San Fran, too.
DENVER -1.5 over Baltimore
The Broncos may lack the star power that Baltimore has with Lamar Jackson, but this team has been one of the league’s best so far – it shows in their record and DVOA rating. Giving fewer than the customary three-point home-field advantage looks like a minor bargain.
GREEN BAY -6.5 over Pittsburgh
There’s something wrong in Pittsburgh and it starts with Big Ben. He has become captain checkdown and the offence simply doesn’t operate when you’re not pushing the ball downfield. The Packers haven’t hit their stride yet, but are much closer to that then the visitors.
Tampa Bay -6.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Pats had their hands full last week with a Saints team that is much worse than these Bucs. While the narrative is that this is a revenge game between Brady and Belichick, the fact is that the two squads around these men are on different levels.
Las Vegas +3.5 over L.A. CHARGERS
It’s estimated that upwards of 70% of the crowd in L.A. will be Raiders fans, which isn’t the best for building a home-field advantage. The Raiders certainly have been lucky this season while the Chargers remain on the back foot in that department.
Last week: 8-8
This season: 24-24