The lines are from covers.com and the home teams in CAPs.
Las Vegas +6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
Teams that have played the Broncos in the previous week, as the Raiders did, have an ongoing pattern of exploding on offence the following week. The Colts have been dealing with their share of COVID issues, but should have Carson Wentz back. Jonathan Taylor should pile up his yards, but the visitors cover late.
CHICAGO -6 over New York Giants
Maybe the Giants should’ve taken Justin Fields themselves, instead of trading the pick to Chicago. The rookie has shown a lot of improvement over the second half of the season while the Giants can’t do much right at all these days.
NEW YORK JETS +13 over Tampa Bay
Tom Brady doesn’t lose to the Jets, but will his Bucs cover this big line on the road? With some signs of improvement from New York, there’s at least a little bit of hope.
BUFFALO -14.5 over Atlanta
The Bills should finally put the Falcons out of their misery. The southern dome-based team will have a tough time in frigid Orchard Park. Buffalo gets back some key pieces from COVID this week, too.
WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
These two teams played just two weeks ago with the Eagles winning by 10 – a scoreline that flattered Washington a bit. But can’t Philly stumble here? The hosts have their QB back in this one and the Eagles are once again without Miles Sanders. This one should be closer.
Kansas City -5 over CINCINNATI
The Chiefs get Travis Kelce back for this one and will look to put the brakes on Cincy’s modest winning streak. In fact, the Bengals haven’t put three wins in a row together yet this season in four attempts. K.C. can’t mess around with the top seed in the AFC very much up for grabs.
NEW ENGLAND -15.5 over Jacksonville
The Pats will undoubtedly win this game, with Bill Belichick’s reputation against rookie QBs at the forefront here. The only thing that has us weary of spotting this big number is that New England may hold something back with a big game against Miami looming in Week 18.
Miami +3.5 over TENNESSEE
This is the toughest test yet for the red-hot Dolphins, especially with the Titans getting a huge boost from A.J. Brown’s return last week. But Miami has really found itself with a strong defence and Tua Tagovailoa’s growth in the passing game.
BALTIMORE +3.5 over L.A. Rams
Lamar Jackson could return in this one from his supposedly low-grade ankle injury which has now kept him out two games. At the very least, Tyler Huntley will be available to spark a Ravens team that probably has no business even being close in this one.
L.A. CHARGERS -6.5 over Denver
The Chargers defence has been its biggest weakness, with several key pieces missing. But, with a hobbled Drew Lock under centre for their opponent this week, it won’t matter as much.
Houston +12.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners will look to bounce back after last week’s loss to the Titans, but will have to do it without Jimmy G, who has been surprisingly effective recently. Houston isn’t very talented, but will get top WR Brandin Cooks back and have also won their past two games.
Arizona +5.5 over DALLAS
After the Cowboys’ massive win in prime time last week, this line may have been juiced a bit. Arizona has struggled down the stretch and Kyler Murray hasn’t looked like the electric MVP candidate we know. Even so, the Cards need this win more and will likely keep it close.
NEW ORLEANS -7 over Carolina
The Panthers will start Sam Darnold this week, but it just doesn’t matter. Carolina is a mess and even its highly touted defence has now allowed 27+ points in each of the past five games.
Detroit +7 over SEATTLE
With the Lions playing as hard as they have down the stretch, should this line be this high? D’Andre Swift looks set to return and should provide a further boost to Detroit’s lineup. Our big concern is the travel: The Lions played in Atlanta last week and now fly out to Seattle.
GREEN BAY -6.5 over Minnesota
With temperatures forecast to be below freezing, who would you rather trust: Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins? And not just regular Cousins, it’s Prime Time Cousins, which is markedly worse. The Pack have dropped the past two ATS, but bounce back here.
PITTSBURGH +3 over Cleveland
It’s Big Ben’s last game in Pittsburgh, so it should be emotional. But the main thing here is that the Browns just aren’t good enough to giving three points on the road against a rival that has traditionally owned them.
Last week: 10-6
This week: 115-124-1