The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
CHICAGO -1 over Washington
These teams really upped the ante for bad football after TNF last week. Justin Fields and Carson Wentz are among the league’s worst QBs and Ron Rivera will probably not last for much longer.
Tampa Bay -8.5 over PITTSBURGH
While we’re not expecting a total domination like the Bills against the Steelers last week, the Bucs won’t take it easy on them either. Kenny Pickett is getting a baptism by fire, but at least he’s learning early what it’s like to face the league’s best.
NEW ORLEANS +1.5 over Cincinnati
The Bengals have been feeling that post-Super Bowl hangover that many – including me – expected. The Saints can put Joe Burrow under pressure and Tee Higgins’ ankle injury is a concern. With Jameis Winston likely back and Taysom Hill always ready to do his thing, we’ll take the home dog.
Jacksonville +2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
The home has won the past eight games in this rivalry, but the Colts have struggled mightily this season. And with Jonathan Taylor unlikely to play, Indy’s offence doesn’t inspire any confidence. Trevor Lawrence has hit the skids the past two games, but can turn it around here.
New England +3 over CLEVELAND
The hosses on the line are going to love this one, with both sides heavily focused on their rushing attacks. Jacoby Brissett has been awful with late turnovers and if there’s an opposing coach that will put him in pressure situations, it is Bill Belichick.
New York Jets +7 over GREEN BAY
Somewhat surprisingly, the Jets aren’t all that worse than the Packers so far this season. Aaron Rodgers and the offence have seen their level dip and the defence hasn’t lived up to expectations either. New York should at least sneak in a back-door cover.
Baltimore -5.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
It seems that everyone this week is rushing to praise the Giants for their 4-1, but those wins haven’t exactly come against the best opponents. The team still ranks in the bottom third of DVOA and are going up against an MVP contender in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens should also know all of Giants DC Wink Martindale’s schemes after letting him go in the off-season. Saquon Barkley’s status has us concerned, too.
MIAMI +3.5 over Minnesota
Skylar Thompson starts for the Dolphins, which doesn’t exactly inspires confidence, but at least he will have a week of practice under his belt. The Vikings defence hasn’t come together yet, which makes us believe this will be a close one.
San Francisco -5.5 over ATLANTA
The Falcons are undefeated against the spread but that run is about to come to an end. The 49ers are ranked third overall by DVOA while the Falcons are down in 21st. Without Cordarelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, the Falcons are lacking in offensive weapons while the Niners have been running the ball incredibly well.
Carolina +10.5 over L.A. RAMS
With Matt Rhule gone and Baker Mayfield out, the Rams may be the cure for what ails the Panthers. L.A. is a bevy of issues on offence and will be up against a Carolina defence that has some impressive pieces. The Rams are also actually worse than Carolina in the DVOA rankings.
SEATTLE +2.5 over Arizona
The Cards are looking like a mess and Kliff Kingsbury is now the favourite to be the next coach fired despite getting an extension this off-season. The Seahawks have been a pleasant surprise with Geno Smith playing like one of the most efficient QBs in the league.
KANSAS CITY +2.5 over Buffalo
It will be a long, long time before you’ll be able to take Patrick Mahomes as a home dog again, so we’ll go for it now.
PHILADELPHIA -6 over Dallas
The Cowboys have impressed with Dak Prescott out, winning their four games with Cooper Rush starting. But they haven’t faced a team as good as the Eagles, beating up on poor offensive lines along the way. With Micah Parsons ailing, Dallas’ pass rush could have a hard time getting pressure on Jalen Hurts.
L.A. CHARGERS -5 over Denver
Sure, the Broncos have the extra rest and this is a division rivalry game, but how can you trust them? The Chargers have their own injury issues, but the home team has won each of the past five matchups between these two. Austin Ekeler has found the end zone five times in the past two games and should do it again.
Last week: 7-8-1
This season: 34-43-3
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