The lines are from Sportsbook Review and the home teams are in CAPs.
BALTIMORE -3.5 over Kansas City
It is so incredibly tempting to take the Chiefs here. The defending champs showed their mettle last week in Buffalo, escaping a tough spot with a win thanks to a heartbreaking missed field goal. Patrick Mahomes once again overcame the odds as underdog, bumping his record in the situation to 9-1 in his career. But this Ravens team is a different monster. Baltimore’s defence has been among the league’s best all season long and proved itself again last week against the Texans, while K.C. has struggled to move the ball at times. Without any real weapons at WR, the Chiefs could have trouble moving the ball. The injury situation also weighs in Baltimore’s favour with all-star TE Mark Andrews and star DB Marlon Humphrey potentially returning while the Chiefs saw Willie Gay, L’Jarius Sneed and Joe Thuney all go down last week. While that extra half-point hook looms large for this pick, we think this is Lamar Jackson’s year and he’s set for his first trip to the Super Bowl.
SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Detroit
This is an incredible buy-low/sell-high spot. The 49ers looked terribly rusty against the Packers last week while the Lions have everyone behind them after reaching the NFC Championship for the first time in forever. But when you’re making picks, sentimentality won’t get you far. As great of a story as this Lions team is, it’s not quite there yet. The defence looks incredibly vulnerable at times and their two playoff wins have each been by one possession. They’re also leaving the safe confines of Ford Field, which does not bode well for QB Jared Goff. He has been markedly worse on the road and is just 3-6 against San Francisco in his career. On the 49ers side of things, last week’s poor performance can be attributed to two things: The lost Deebo Samuel early in the game – greatly altering their gameplan – and it was absolutely pouring rain, which clearly had an effect on Brock Purdy. Well, Samuel has a chance to play through his shoulder injury and the forecast is looking beautiful. So, unless the heavens part and we see a monsoon hit the Bay Area, we’re betting on the Niners booking their ticket Vegas in a big way.
Last week: 1-3
This playoffs: 6-4
This season: 134-130-8