The lines are from Sportsbook Review and the home teams are in CAPs.
San Francisco 49ers -2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This might be the most I’ve ever gone back and forth with a Super Bowl pick.
On one side, you have the ultra-talented and deep 49ers while on the other is the reigning champion Chiefs with one of the best QBs in NFL history, Patrick Mahomes.
While we have a season’s worth of data about both teams, what we learned during the stretch run and the playoffs is far more important to us than what happened back in September.
With that noted, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses – obviously. But the one that bears the most weight is how these sides are going about winning their games.
With the exception of their first-round win over the Dolphins, the Chiefs have come out strong on offence in their three games, only to have to hold on late. K.C. has struggled in the second half of the games against Buffalo and Baltimore, arguably lucking out both times.
On the other side, San Francisco was trailing by a touchdown or more in both of their games and had to show their grit in those comebacks – which is something that coach Kyle Shanahan has struggled to do in the past. In both games, the 49ers’ opponents had win probabilities of at least 82% in the second half.
But, with weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, even the Chiefs’ elite defence is going to have a tough time keeping the 49ers in check.
What we’re expecting is to see is K.C. to take advantage of Andy Reid’s supreme scripting to jump out to an early lead, but then see the 49ers make the necessary adjustments and complete the late comeback.
With a team as capable of explosive plays as the 49ers are, all it takes is a few snaps to turn things around.
With all due apologies to the Swifties that will be tuning in for the big game, the Chiefs will suffer some heartbreak on Sunday night.
PICK: 49ers -2 over Chiefs
SCORE: 49ers 23, Chiefs 20
MVP: Brock Purdy, SF
Conference finals: 0-2
This playoffs: 6-6
This season: 134-130-8
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