The lines are from Covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
San Francisco -3.5 over SEATTLE
The 49ers got a much-needed win against a division rival – even if they tried their best to blow it in the second half for a while – but also suffered even more injuries in their quest to return to the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville +2.5 over CHICAGO in London
Despite the Bears being listed as the home, it’s actually the Jaguars who should feel at home in London after winning both games in the UK last year. The tape still isn’t fully lining up with the recent numbers for Bears rookie Caleb Williams, too.
Tampa Bay -3.5 over NEW ORLEANS
Not only have the Saints been figured out on offence after a blazing hot start to the season, but now Derek Carr is expected to miss weeks with an oblique injury. The Bucs need to take advantage of his absence here.
GREEN BAY -5 over Arizona
While Kyler Murray can look electric at times, the Cardinals offence hasn’t been all that hot, ranking just above average in DVOA. The difference is Arizona’s defence is among the league’s worst and the Packers should be able to go to town.
TENNESSEE -1 over Indianapolis
While the Colts defence has been improving, this isn’t the week to back them. Anthony Richardson looks poised to return from injury and are we sure that’s a good thing? A little apprenticeship under Joe Flacco could help a lot in the long run.
PHILADELPHIA -9 over Cleveland
We hate to go against a heavy underdog with so many covering and even winning outright, but nah, we just can’t back Deshaun Watson on the road against a decent defensive line. Also, watch out because A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith look set to return.
NEW ENGLAND +7 over Houston
It’s Drake Maye time! Jacoby Brissett was looking awful and a little boost at QB should be enough for the home to team to cover.
Washington +6.5 over BALTIMORE
While we certainly wouldn’t bet against the Ravens winning this game straight up, this line is big enough that the Commanders could sneak in a backdoor cover.
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DENVER +3 over L.A. Chargers
The Chargers are coming off their bye which surely helped their walking wounded recover a bit, but the Broncos have been a surprise package so far. Denver’s defence is looking good and at the very least will make this game a grind. We’ll happily take the points as a home dog.
Pittsburgh -3 over LAS VEGAS
Do the Raiders really think that switching to Aiden O’Connell at QB the week that they face the Steelers defence is going to make a difference? And with Christian Wilkins going on IR, the Vegas defence will be easier to slice and dice.
Atlanta -6 over CAROLINA
We’d love to take the Panthers as a dog here, but the numbers are really starting to back up the fact that Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offence is improving by the week. Shaking things up with Andy Dalton was only going to get Carolina so far.
Detroit -3 over DALLAS
The Cowboys scored a big upset on the road late Sunday night in Pittsburgh and will have to come right back and face another solid outfit. When these teams met last year, the Lions were on the wrong side of an awful call by the ref and surely will be looking for revenge this time out.
Cincinnati -3.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
The big worry here is the Bengals defence. But any fear about the Giants being able to take advantage of it is assuaged by remembering Daniel Jones is on the other side of the coin.
NEW YORK JETS +2.5 over Buffalo
Oh hey, it’s the new coach bump! Remember that last year it was the Jets that beat the Bills in the opener in New York that saw Aaron Rodgers blow out his Achilles after four plays.
Last week: 6-7-1
This season: 35-41-2