The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
New England -6.5 over ATLANTA
Honestly, I just couldn’t be happier that the score never got to 28-3, for the sake of Twitter.
CLEVELAND -10 over Detroit
Jared Goff, David Blough or Tim Boyle: Are you willing to bet on any of those three QBs against a Browns team primed for a bounce-back after last week’s drubbing by the Pats?
San Francisco -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
The Niners face an early kickoff after a cross-country flight, but have a massive advantage in DVOA in this matchup. The Jags just won’t have an answer for Deebo Samuel, who is becoming a superstar.
Indianapolis +7 over BUFFALO
The Bills are the odds-on favourite to win the Super Bowl right now, but we’re fading them this week. Buffalo is now on to a much more difficult run on their schedule and will finally be truly tested.
Miami -3 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets defence has been historically bad over the past four weeks and now the offence will be led by Joe Flacco, who hasn’t won a game in years.
CAROLINA -3.5 over Washington
Forget Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey is the reason to bet the Panthers this week. Washington got up for the Bucs last week, but we doubt that bucks their season-long trend.
CHICAGO +6 over Baltimore
Will the Bears put the pressure on the Ravens like Miami did last Thursday? Justin Fields had been showing growth before the bye and we’re not totally sold on the Ravens defence.
New Orleans +1.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles’ offence has sprung to life over the past three weeks, but their improvement in the running game may be a mirage based on their opponents’ weakness. The Saints are a tough out and should have Alvin Kamara back.
Houston +10.5 over TENNESSEE
The Titans are one of the hottest teams out there, but you can’t discount division games, no matter the matchup. The Titans could easily get caught taking their foot off the gas with the Pats on tap next week.
Green Bay -2.5 over MINNESOTA
Aaron Rodgers has made a career out of doing away with NFC North foes and there’s not much to convince us that the Vikings can come out on top here.
Cincinnati -1 over LAS VEGAS
The Raiders put on a pathetic display of defence against a Chiefs team that has supposedly been figured out. The Bengals slumped into their bye week, but should have used that time to correct their issues.
Arizona -2.5 over SEATTLE
There wasn’t much to be inspired about from Russell Wilson’s return last week and the Cards look like they’ll have Kyler Murray back in the lineup. The MVP candidate’s return is enough to lay the points for us.
KANSAS CITY -2.5 over Dallas
We’re not all-in on the Chiefs being back to Super Bowl contenders, but with an improved defence and Dallas having an eye ahead to Thanksgiving, we’ll take the home side.
Pittsburgh +6 over L.A. CHARGERS
Perhaps the hardest game to pick of the week due to COVID and injury situations. The one thing we would bet on is the Steelers having a strong fan contingent in L.A. and Najee Harris having a huge game on the ground.
TAMPA BAY -11 over New York Giants
The Bucs are coming off two straight losses and the Giants have had 15 days to prep for this one, but we like the hosts in this one. Tom Brady and Co. are undefeated at home and have won those four games by an average of 19.5 points.
Last week: 4-10
This season: 62-87-1