One of the bigger debates in fantasy drafts this season is who do you take first overall: Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey?
There are a few numbers from over the past few seasons that can be used to back up your selection, but the easiest is this: 25.
That’s as in 25 years old and how no running back above that age has finished the season as RB1 since Jamaal Charles did in 2013. While McCaffrey is 26, Taylor – last year’s RB1 – is only 23.
In fact, it has been five years since a back 27 or older has finished in the top six at the position and the last time one finished as RB1 was 2012. Of the RBs going highly drafted this year, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones and James Conner are all 27+.
The average age of the top-15 scoring RBs over the past five seasons is 24.1 years old and, of those 75 RBs, only six have been 27+.
There’s also the matter of touches and how the accumulation of them inevitably wears down a back’s efficiency in fantasy. Looking back over the past several seasons, players with 1,150+ career touches have a 0.7% likelihood of being a top-five fantasy RB. There are currently six RBs that fit that stat: Ezekiel Elliott (1,938 touches), Henry (1,495), Alvin Kamara (1,285), Joe Mixon (1,275), Dalvin Cook (1,200), and Fournette (1,182). And it should also be noted that McCaffrey nearly gets there too, with 1,138 career touches.
It’s tough to be a running back with staying power in the NFL, but it might be even tougher to be an RB with staying power in fantasy football.
RUNNING IT THROUGH
Just a few food-for-thought tidbits before your draft.
– Over the past five years, the RBs taken sixth to 10th in drafts outperformed the first five RBs taken. According to Reddit user sleepytimejon, 16% of the first five RBs drafted finished in the top three of the position, 28% in the top five and 44% in the top 10. On the other hand, 28% of the next five RBs drafted finished in the top three, 36% in the top five and a whopping 60% in the top 10. So maybe it’s actually better to have a later pick in the first round than landing that first-overall spot.
– Some handcuffs are more valuable than others. Between Cook and Alexander Mattison, the Vikings starting RB would’ve finished the season ranked RB4. This also excludes Mattison’s points as a backup when Cook started.
-The San Francisco 49ers have had a different rushing leader in each of the past five seasons. If there are two things we know about coach Kyle Shanahan, it’s that he knows to execute a running scheme and he knows how to turn any RB into a star – just like his dad did.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
When you’re looking at drafting a high-end workhorse running back, the last thing that you want to hear about is an injury heading into the season. Well, Najee Harris was reportedly dealing with a lisfranc sprain suffered in training camp, but should be fine to play once the season begins.
The bigger problem here is that Harris has dealt with foot injuries in college, so there’s a fear this could be an ongoing concern. With a player like Harris, whose value is closely tied to the amount of touches he gets, there’s reason to worry,
– After an entire off-season of questions over where Jimmy Garoppolo’s future lies, it turns out that it is in the same place he has been for years – just officially as a backup now. Jimmy G resigned with the 49ers to be Trey Lance’s backup after the sophomore was promoted to the starting gig this off-season. There evidently wasn’t any team willing to meet San Fran’s asking price.
So what does this mean for fantasy players? Well those who drafted Lance or are looking to should realize that he’ll be on a much shorter leash than if Brock Purdy was waiting on the sidelines. Coach Shanahan is known having put players in his doghouse and if Lance struggles, it would be no surprise to see Lance in there.
– Staying by the Bay, the Niners cut last year’s third-round pick and 2021 pre-season fantasy darling Trey Sermon. As you may recall, Sermon found himself in Shanahan’s doghouse almost immediately and was soundly beaten out by sixth-rounder Elijah Mitchell – who went on to start when Raheem Mostert was hurt. With the considerable hype attached to Sermon, it’s safe to say he belongs amongst the all-time single-season busts.
– After getting shot during a carjacking on Sunday, Washington running back Brian Robinson is already on the road to recovery and was back at the team facilities just days later. The team put Robinson on the NFI list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of the season, but definitely gives hope he’ll play this season. Considering he was reportedly on the verge of unseating starter Antonio Gibson by the end of camp, Robinson is certainly a player to consider drafting and stashing on your IR.
JUST FOR KICKS
While we did tout Baltimore’s Justin Tucker to once again rule the roost among fantasy kickers, there is one thing that should be noted: The most recent K1 to finish in the top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017. We don’t see Tucker falling that far unless he gets injured.
MOCK DRAFT
Round 1
1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, PIT
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
3. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
4. Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
5. Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
6. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
7. Jamarr Chase, WR, CIN
8. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
9. Najee Harris, RB, PIT
10. Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
11. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
12. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
Round 2
13. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
14. Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
15. Davante Adams, WR, LV
16. D’Andre Swift, RB, DET
17. Leonard Fournette, RB, TB
18. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
19. Aaron Jones, RB, GB
20. Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
21. Mike Evans, WR, TB
22. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
23. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
24. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL