The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
TAMPA BAY +1.5 over Baltimore
It’s a shame that we forgot that night games run past Tom Brady’s bedtime.
Denver +2.5 over Jacksonville at London
Both teams have obviously had their issues, but if we’re backing one unit it’ll be the Broncos defence. The Jags have found ways to blow games after their good start to the season and Trevor Lawrence is likely to be under pressure a lot in London.
Chicago +9.5 over DALLAS
The Bears finally let Justin Fields run and, look at that, it paid off. The big angle here is that the Cowboys offence hasn’t been holding up its end of the bargain while the defence has been among the league’s best. Chicago’s own defence should keep this one close.
Las Vegas -2 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints defence has been tremendously disappointing this season while their offence has had its own struggles, due mainly to injuries. While the Saints have had the extra prep time, the Raiders are the more talented team here and they’re just a few plays from being 5-2 instead of 2-5. Josh Jacobs should have an easy time in the Big Easy.
Carolina +4.5 over ATLANTA
The Falcons are now 6-1 against the spread, but have some big issues at play here. They’re facing a strong defence that bottled up the Bucs run game completely last week and have been downright refusing to pass. They’ve also got a rash of injuries, especially on defence. Giving more than a field goal seems too generous.
Pittsburgh +10 over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles come off their bye, but we can’t go against our trend of fading teams with a Thursday nighter on tap. Everything else screams taking the hosts in the battle of Pennsylvania, but we’ve got to back the trend that has done best for us.
DETROIT +3.5 over Miami
The Lions look to be getting D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury, which is a huge boost to their offence. It has been strong defences and injuries that have exposed the Lions in their past two games and the Dolphins come in with a lot of injuries in their secondary.
Arizona +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The Vikings come off their bye, but the Cards aren’t at too much of a rest disadvantage, having played last Thursday. The return of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension gave the offence a boost and that should continue against a mediocre defence.
New England -1.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Patriots absolutely crushed Zach Wilson last year – twice. Coming off that awful showing on Monday night, you have to trust in Bill Belichick to something much better in store for their rival this week. The loss of Breece Hall is one that the Jets will struggle to get over.
Tennessee -2 over HOUSTON
The Texans stick around in games, but rank dead last in DVOA this season. Ryan Tannehill’s injury last week is a bit concerning, but the Titans seem to just keep getting it done. The Texans are the other team playing on this coming Thursday, so we’ve got to fade them as well.
SEATTLE -3 over New York Giants
The travel is going to catch up to this Giants team as its bye week loo[related_links /]s. Going from London to New York to Jacksonville to Seattle. Brian Daboll has been doing an excellent job, but this isn’t a good matchup for his team. Geno Smith has fared well under pressure and Kenneth Walker has run incredibly well since getting the feature role.
Washington +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts made the change this week to bench Matt Ryan and give Sam Ehlinger a whirl at QB. Well, the Commanders made their own move a week ago and it paid off. Spotting points with a unknown running an offence that hasn’t been blocking well is a tough ask.
San Francisco -1.5 over LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Niners have owned this matchup in the regular season going back to 2018, including a 24-9 win earlier this month. Both sides have some key injuries, but the addition of Christian McCaffrey gives the visitors the edge.
BUFFALO -11 over Green Bay
Many will be tempted to back Aaron Rodgers as a double-digit dog, but why? The Packers haven’t been able to get things going on offence and the defence has disappointed. Facing the best team in the league coming off its bye isn’t going to set that right.
CLEVELAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
Ja’Marr Chase’s absence tilts this pick towards the Browns. While Cleveland has its issues, taking that key piece off the field hurts the Bengals a bit too much to be spotting more than a field goal on the road against a rival.
Last week: 10-4
This season: 49-56-3
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