The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
NEW ENGLAND +4 over Buffalo
At what point do the Pats start asking questions about Mac Jones’ potential as a franchise QB?
New York Jets +3 over MINNESOTA
We’re not going to go overboard with the Mike White love, but the fact of the matter is that he’s far better at keeping the offence on schedule and limiting turnovers. The Jets defence, on the other hand, is the best unit in this game and should cause problems for Kirk Cousins.
Denver +8.5 over BALTIMORE
Bet the under in this one. Both offences have a lot of trouble moving the ball and finding the endzone while both defences have excelled, especially Denver’s unit. With scoring expected to be low, we’ll take the points.
Pittsburgh -1 over ATLANTA
The fact that the Steelers are favoured on the road shows just how much better this team is with TJ Watt in the lineup. The Falcons aren’t a bad team and are well-coached, but just aren’t capable of competing against good defences.
Tennessee +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles have had trouble stopping opposing running backs since rookie star Jordan Davis went on the IR. While he has returned to practice, we doubt he returns for this game. That’s good news for Derrick Henry, who is in a bit of a slump. Jalen Hurts is going to be tested as a passer in this one and the Titans should be looking for some revenge against former WR A.J. Brown.
Jacksonville -1 over DETROIT
Did we just watch the Jags finally put it together last week? The Lions have had some extra rest after nearly shocking the Bills on Thanksgiving, but this defence still has a lot of holes in it. If Trevor Lawrence can keep up his moment and Travis Etienne return from his reportedly minor injury, the Jags should get a rare road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 over Washington
Washington is on an excellent run and its defence has grown into a solid unit over the course of the season, but the Giants have more in their favour. The Giants have a rest advantage, are at home and Daniel Jones – for some reason – has an excellent record against Washington.
Cleveland -7 over HOUSTON
Deshaun Watson is back and he has a good opponent to get his feet under him: The league-worst Texans. Houston has been outscored by 73 points over its six-game losing streak and – surprise – Kyle Allen isn’t the answer at QB.
Green Bay -4 over CHICAGO
We’re betting against Justin Fields playing with this pick. And, as banged up as Aaron Rodgers is, he still does own the Bears.
Seattle -7.5 over L.A. RAMS
The Rams are missing so many star players that it’s not even funny. Without Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Allen Robinson II, there isn’t much hope here. The Rams are a top-heavy roster and the top has blown away. Defence has been a problem for the Seahawks over the past few games, but the Rams don’t have the personnel to take advantage.
SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Miami
What an awesome matchup. While Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have the best record as a favourite, the big advantage here is the 49ers pass rush against a banged-up Miami offensive line. Tua Tagovailoa is going to have to get the ball out fast with Nick Bosa bearing down him and Jeff Wilson Jr. is going to have limited holes to find against his former team.
LAS VEGAS +1.5 over L.A. Chargers
Josh Jacobs was good enough to return from his injury and score a walkoff TD in overtime, so we’re betting he’ll be good enough to carve apart a Chargers defence that is big on names, but low on actual results. These teams always play entertaining, close ones, but the Raiders may have finally figured some things out.
CINCINNATI +2 over Kansas City
Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs get their revenge for last season’s playoff meltdown, or are the Bengals the better side? Joe Burrow has found his swagger and could get Ja’Marr Chase back this week. With the Cincy defence looking on point, we’ll back the home team.
DALLAS -11 over Indianapolis
After the initial new-coach bump from the hiring of Jeff Saturday, it seems that reality is starting to set in for the Colts. The offence is in big trouble and will again struggle to move the ball against a good defence.
TAMPA BAY -3.5 over New Orleans
While everyone should be rightfully upset and also a bit worried about Tampa Bay’s time-management blunders last week, we’re backing them in prime-time this week. Andy Dalton has struggled under the lights this year and Tom Brady already broke his curse against the Saints earlier this season.
Last week: 6-9-1
This season: 84-90-6
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