The lines are from covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.
SAN FRANCISCO -10 over Seattle
Geno Smith’s redemption tour in Seattle has been an amazing story this season and the Seahawks have done well to overcome expectations and even make it to the post-season. But the Niners are just on another level right now, even with their third-string QB, Brock Purdy, who has done an excellent job while being pressed into service. San Fran has advantages all over the field and is getting healthy at the right time for a Super Bowl run.
JACKSONVILLE +2.5 over L.A. Chargers
The Jags have already essentially won one playoff game and now get to host another. The Chargers, on the other hand, shockingly played most of their starters late into Week 18 – in spite of all reason – and still lost to the Broncos. It might have cost them dearly, with Mike Williams hurting his back and Joey Bosa also limping off. Looking at L.A.’s recent four-game win streak to get into the playoffs and it’s not exactly impressive, either. Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence is an excellent matchup, but it’s the coaching where we see the huge difference. Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl while Brandon Staley seems way over his head.
BUFFALO -13 over Miami
While this is certainly a lot of points to spot in a playoff game when the teams have already met twice this season, the Dolphins are hurting. Skylar Thompson looks set to start the game and Raheem Mostert broke his thumb last week. It’s going to be a chilly day in Orchard Park, which won’t bode well for Miami, either. The Bills are riding a high after all of the good news following Damar Hamlin’s frightening collapse and that should propel them into a big win against an overmatched opponent here.
MINNESOTA -3 over New York Giants
It feels like everyone and their uncle is on the Giants as a live dog this week and we can understand why. Brian Daboll has turned this team around in record time despite dealing with several injury woes while the Vikings have repeatedly been called the worst 13-win team ever. Despite its 13-4 record, Minnesota has a point differential of -3, which is quite the accomplish. The Vikes have been excellent in one-score games and, while that is an easy sign to point to for regression, it also shows how resilient they can be in tight contests. While backing Kirk Cousins in a spot with the world watching is a dicey proposition, we like the more talented offence to get it done.
Baltimore +8.5 over CINCINNATI
It was pretty clear that the Ravens weren’t going to go all out when these two rivals met in Week 18, opting to rest some players and look fairly vanilla in an 11-point loss. The Bengals suffered a big loss on their O-line with Alex Cappa going down and the Ravens defence will have Joe Burrow under pressure. While he has the poise and weapons to ultimately make it work, these two defences are likely to make big impacts this week. We’re likely looking at a low-scoring game and taking more than a touchdown feels like the right move.
TAMPA BAY +2.5 over Dallas
In case you haven’t noticed, the Cowboys have very much been struggling down the stretch. They didn’t impress against a backup Titans team and then the offence looked awful against Washington in Week 18 despite playing the starters. The defence has also fallen off and could have a hard time with the Bucs WR duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Tom Brady, of course, has more playoff experience than anyone and should have no problem outduelling Dak Prescott, who has had issues with turnovers this season. And, with Vita Vea on track to return from injury, Dallas’ running game could be in for a rough time, too. While the Cowboys have many statistical advantages heading into Monday night, the only one that will matter is the scoreboard, which should favour the hosts.
Last week: 9-7
This season: 131-133-7